FC Volendam 2-3 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Volendam host NEC Nijmegen at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 December 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NEC Nijmegen — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour NEC Nijmegen — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
NEC Nijmegen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against FC Volendam's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 5.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2024, ended 2–5 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. NEC Nijmegen have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 5.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 65% and NEC Nijmegen 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 76% | NEC Nijmegen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.47 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.884 / defence 0.945 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.227 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.421. NEC Nijmegen have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 FC Volendam games / 48 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 34% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 42%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | NEC Nijmegen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | NEC Nijmegen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 34% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Volendam 1.47 / NEC Nijmegen 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.884 / def 0.945 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.227 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.65
NEC Nijmegen xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen?
FC Volendam 2 - 3 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 34% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 1 | NEC Nijmegen 3W.
What form are FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Volendam's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
34%
2.92
24%
4.22
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.11
1.65
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
7%
15.18
10%
10.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.65 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Volendam come into this having played 49 games, going 29W 9D 11L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.37 PPG from 49 outings (19W 10D 20L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Volendam's home form reads 18W 3D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (8W 3D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.82 scored and 1.47 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 29W 9D 11L in their last 49 games (1.96 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 19W 10D 20L in their last 49 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.28 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
NEC Nijmegen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when NEC Nijmegen won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC Volendam
1
Draws
5
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 0, NEC Nijmegen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 3-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 64%, NEC Nijmegen 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for FC Volendam and 52% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; NEC Nijmegen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 40% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of FC Volendam's matches and 52% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NEC Nijmegen edge out FC Volendam 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat FC Volendam 2-3 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.47 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.65 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.23 / defence 0.97, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 34% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 42%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 76%, NEC Nijmegen 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with NEC Nijmegen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.