FC Volendam 2-5 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours NEC Nijmegen (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Volendam face NEC Nijmegen.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

FC Volendam host NEC Nijmegen at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.

NEC Nijmegen — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

NEC Nijmegen away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour NEC Nijmegen — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC Volendam have won 0, NEC Nijmegen 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

FC Volendam in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 63% and NEC Nijmegen 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 68% | NEC Nijmegen 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.05 xG and NEC Nijmegen 2.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.634 / defence 1.523 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.092 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.453. FC Volendam's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 FC Volendam games / 57 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Volendam 14% | Draw 19% | NEC Nijmegen 67%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 7.14 | Draw 5.26 | NEC Nijmegen 1.49. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.05 / 2.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 40% | NEC Nijmegen 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights