FC Volendam 2-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Volendam host Fortuna Sittard at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Volendam — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's home record at Kras Stadion: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Fortuna Sittard have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (FC Volendam) versus 1.40 (Fortuna Sittard). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Volendam have won 0, Fortuna Sittard 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Fortuna Sittard in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 68% and Fortuna Sittard 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 68% | Fortuna Sittard 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.71 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.017 / defence 1.201 | Fortuna Sittard attack 1.056 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.289. Data: 25 FC Volendam games / 59 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 39% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Fortuna Sittard 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Fortuna Sittard 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 39% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Volendam 1.71 / Fortuna Sittard 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.017 / def 1.201 | Fortuna Sittard attack 1.056 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Fortuna Sittard xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 March 2023 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard?
FC Volendam 2 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 39% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (1 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Sittard 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.02x the league average against Fortuna Sittard's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
39%
2.56
25%
4.01
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.34
1.64
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
8%
13.15
7%
15.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.64 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 26W 15D 18L from 59 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 31L across 59 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Volendam by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Sittard heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 17W 4D 8L from 29 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 9W 5D 15L across 29 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.14 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 26W 15D 18L in their last 59 games (1.58 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 18W 10D 31L in their last 59 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.90 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fortuna Sittard go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Volendam
0
Draws
5
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 1, Fortuna Sittard have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Volendam 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 76%, Fortuna Sittard at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for FC Volendam and 66% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of FC Volendam's games and 69% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of FC Volendam's matches and 66% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Fortuna Sittard 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Fortuna Sittard 2-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.71 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.64 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.02 / defence 1.20 against Fortuna Sittard attack 1.06 / defence 1.06, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 39% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 36%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 68%, Fortuna Sittard 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.