Excelsior 1-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Excelsior host NAC Breda at Stadion Woudestein in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior at Stadion Woudestein this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Woudestein. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Excelsior are significantly better at Stadion Woudestein than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NAC Breda have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Excelsior 1.30 PPG, NAC Breda 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Excelsior have won 1, NAC Breda 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 4–1 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Excelsior in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 55% versus NAC Breda 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 60% | NAC Breda 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.32 xG and NAC Breda 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.659 / defence 0.958 | NAC Breda attack 0.925 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.736 / away 1.471. Excelsior's attack strength of 0.659 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Excelsior games / 47 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 37% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 36%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | NAC Breda 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 5.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior 30% | NAC Breda 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Woudestein • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 37% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Excelsior 1.32 / NAC Breda 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.659 / def 0.958 | NAC Breda attack 0.925 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.736 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.30
NAC Breda xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs NAC Breda kick off?
Excelsior vs NAC Breda kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Stadion Woudestein.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs NAC Breda?
Excelsior 1 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Excelsior vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Woudestein.
What competition is Excelsior vs NAC Breda part of?
Excelsior vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 37% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Excelsior and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and NAC Breda?
Record (4 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 2W.
What form are Excelsior and NAC Breda in?
Excelsior (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 0.66x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.81
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.63
1.30
NAC Breda xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Excelsior and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.30 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Excelsior's recent record stands at 24W 8D 15L from 47 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 24L across 47 games — 0.96 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Excelsior by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NAC Breda heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 14W 3D 6L from 23 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 2W 5D 16L across 23 trips, a 0.48 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.04 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 24W 8D 15L in their last 47 games (1.70 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 11W 12D 24L in their last 47 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or NAC Breda away?
Excelsior's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.96 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.48 PPG.
Have Excelsior or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Excelsior go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Excelsior
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when NAC Breda 0-2 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and NAC Breda?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 39%, NAC Breda 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Excelsior) and 61% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; NAC Breda in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Excelsior's recent matches and 52% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Excelsior's recent games and 61% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Excelsior edge out NAC Breda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat NAC Breda 1-0 at Stadion Woudestein, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.32 xG and NAC Breda 1.30 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. NAC Breda landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.66 / defence 0.96 against NAC Breda attack 0.93 / defence 1.16, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 37% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 36%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 60%, NAC Breda 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
NAC Breda's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.