Excelsior 3-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Excelsior and Heracles meet at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 18 May 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
Excelsior's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heracles (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Heracles's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Excelsior. A 1.20 PPG lead over Heracles (2.00 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.25 xG and Heracles 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Heracles attack 0.542 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.303. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Excelsior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Excelsior games / 34 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 47% | Draw 29% | Heracles 24%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Heracles 4.17. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 May 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 47% | Draw 29% | Heracles 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Excelsior 1.25 / Heracles 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Heracles attack 0.542 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Heracles xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Heracles kick off?
Excelsior vs Heracles kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 18 May 2022 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Heracles?
Excelsior 3 - 0 Heracles.
Where is Excelsior vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Heracles part of?
Excelsior vs Heracles is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 47% chance of winning, Heracles a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Excelsior and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Heracles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior and Heracles in?
Excelsior (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W. Heracles (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 0.85x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (0.54x) against Excelsior's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
47%
2.15
29%
3.41
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.06
0.81
Heracles xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
7%
14.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Excelsior and 0.81 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Excelsior come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 1D 0L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 0.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Excelsior carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 0.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
Defensively: Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Heracles in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Heracles have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have Excelsior or Heracles been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Heracles in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 4-0 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Heracles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Excelsior
1
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Heracles?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, Heracles have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Heracles 1-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Heracles?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Excelsior's recent matches and 50% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Excelsior's recent games and 50% of Heracles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior and Heracles tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Heracles in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Heracles 3-0 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.25 xG and Heracles 0.81 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Heracles landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Heracles attack 0.54 / defence 1.24, drawn from 0/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 47% | Draw 29% | Heracles 24%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 50%, Heracles 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Excelsior scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.