Excelsior 0-1 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Heerenveen at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Heerenveen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion plays host to Excelsior versus Heerenveen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 5 November 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Excelsior have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Excelsior have posted 4W 4D 2L at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Excelsior are significantly better at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Heerenveen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Heerenveen have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Heerenveen are 0.80 PPG clear of Excelsior in recent Eredivisie fixtures (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Excelsior half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Heerenveen half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 62% versus Heerenveen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 67% | Heerenveen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.20 xG and Heerenveen 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.848 / defence 1.184 | Heerenveen attack 0.918 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.326. Data: 12 Excelsior games / 46 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 31% | Draw 26% | Heerenveen 42%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Heerenveen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heerenveen at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heerenveen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 80% | Heerenveen 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 31% | Draw 26% | Heerenveen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Excelsior 1.20 / Heerenveen 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.848 / def 1.184 | Heerenveen attack 0.918 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Heerenveen xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Heerenveen kick off?
Excelsior vs Heerenveen kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Heerenveen?
Excelsior 0 - 1 Heerenveen.
Where is Excelsior vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Heerenveen part of?
Excelsior vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 31% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Excelsior and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Heerenveen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior and Heerenveen in?
Excelsior (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Heerenveen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Heerenveen's attack (0.92x) against Excelsior's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
31%
3.19
26%
3.80
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.64
1.44
Heerenveen xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
7%
13.49
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.44 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Excelsior come into this having played 48 games, going 21W 12D 15L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Heerenveen sit at 1.27 PPG from 48 outings (16W 13D 19L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Excelsior against 1.27 for Heerenveen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Excelsior's home form reads 11W 6D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Heerenveen have taken 1.13 points per game from 23 outings (6W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.10 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 21W 12D 15L in their last 48 games (1.56 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 16W 13D 19L in their last 48 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Heerenveen away?
Excelsior's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.70 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Heerenveen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 0-3 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Excelsior
1
Draws
3
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Heerenveen?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 2, Heerenveen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Excelsior 1-2 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Heerenveen see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 65%, Heerenveen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Excelsior and 44% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 30%; Heerenveen in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Heerenveen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Excelsior's games and 48% of Heerenveen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Excelsior's matches and 44% of Heerenveen's.
Do Excelsior and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Heerenveen edge out Excelsior 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat Excelsior 0-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.20 xG and Heerenveen 1.44 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Excelsior fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Heerenveen attack 0.92 / defence 0.85, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 31% | Draw 26% | Heerenveen 42%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 67%, Heerenveen 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Heerenveen's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.56 PPG, Heerenveen 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Heerenveen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.