Cambuur 3-0 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 8 as Cambuur welcome PSV Eindhoven to Cambuur Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur at Cambuur Stadion this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PSV Eindhoven stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. PSV Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. PSV Eindhoven's 2.50 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Cambuur's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cambuur, 2 for PSV Eindhoven and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
PSV Eindhoven trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 66% and PSV Eindhoven 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 66% | PSV Eindhoven 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 0.97 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.617 / defence 1.036 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.642 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.330. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.617 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.642 — the away xG of 2.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Cambuur games / 41 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 15% | Draw 19% | PSV Eindhoven 66%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 6.67 | Draw 5.26 | PSV Eindhoven 1.52. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 70% | PSV Eindhoven 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 15% | Draw 19% | PSV Eindhoven 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 56% | xG Cambuur 0.97 / PSV Eindhoven 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.617 / def 1.036 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.642 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
2.26
PSV Eindhoven xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven?
Cambuur 3 - 0 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 15% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 66% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (2 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 2W.
What form are Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven in?
Cambuur (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 0.62x the league average against PSV Eindhoven's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 2.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
15%
6.72
19%
5.34
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.24
2.26
PSV Eindhoven xG
6.72
15%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
10%
9.60
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
2%
64.49
25%
3.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.9 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.26 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 7D 22L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PSV Eindhoven sit at 2.41 PPG from 41 outings (32W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.36 PPG clear of Cambuur — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cambuur's home form reads 5W 3D 12L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, PSV Eindhoven have taken 2.25 points per game from 20 outings (14W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.78 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; PSV Eindhoven in 71%.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
PSV Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 12W 7D 22L in their last 41 games (1.05 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 32W 3D 6L in their last 41 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.90 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when PSV Eindhoven won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cambuur
0
Draws
3
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when PSV Eindhoven 5-2 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cambuur at 80%, PSV Eindhoven at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Cambuur and 80% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Cambuur's games and 70% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Cambuur's matches and 80% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cambuur run riot with a 3-0 hammering of PSV Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat PSV Eindhoven 3-0 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 0.97 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.26 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PSV Eindhoven landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.62 / defence 1.04 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.64 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 15% | Draw 19% | PSV Eindhoven 66%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Cambuur win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 66%, PSV Eindhoven 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Cambuur winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.