AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AZ Alkmaar (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AZ Alkmaar face Cambuur.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar host Cambuur at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at AFAS Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
AZ Alkmaar are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, Cambuur 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 75% and Cambuur 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 70% | Cambuur 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.65 xG and Cambuur 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.431 / defence 1.171 | Cambuur attack 0.716 / defence 0.755. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.208. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.431 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cambuur's defence strength of 0.755 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 AZ Alkmaar games / 56 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 50% | Draw 30% | Cambuur 21%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Cambuur 4.76. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 80% | Cambuur 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 50% | Draw 30% | Cambuur 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.65 / Cambuur 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.431 / def 1.171 | Cambuur attack 0.716 / def 0.755 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Cambuur xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur?
AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 50% chance of winning, Cambuur a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur?
Record (3 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 2W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Cambuur (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AZ Alkmaar's attack rating (1.43) and Cambuur's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
50%
2.01
30%
3.35
21%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.67
1.01
Cambuur xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.88
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
4%
25.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.01 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 56 games, going 32W 12D 12L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 0.93 PPG from 56 outings (14W 10D 32L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Cambuur — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 17W 7D 3L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.15 points per game from 27 outings (8W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.16 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 32W 12D 12L in their last 56 games (1.93 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 14W 10D 32L in their last 56 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Cambuur away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.15 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
AZ Alkmaar go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
AZ Alkmaar
1
Draws
0
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 3, Cambuur have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Cambuur see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 78%, Cambuur 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for AZ Alkmaar and 56% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 44% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 56% of Cambuur's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out Cambuur 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Cambuur 2-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.65 xG and Cambuur 1.01 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.43 / defence 1.17 against Cambuur attack 0.72 / defence 0.76, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 50% | Draw 30% | Cambuur 21%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 70%, Cambuur 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.