AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajax at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ajax travel to AFAS Stadion to take on AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, AZ Alkmaar have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
AZ Alkmaar at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ajax stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ajax away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Ajax's 2.60 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of AZ Alkmaar's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from AZ Alkmaar's last 10 home games and Ajax's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of AZ Alkmaar: 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Ajax, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2024, ended AZ Alkmaar 2–0 Ajax — a AZ Alkmaar win.
The head-to-head data gives AZ Alkmaar an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Ajax trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 52% and Ajax 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 67% | Ajax 75%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: AZ Alkmaar surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Ajax have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Ajax surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while AZ Alkmaar recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.60 xG and Ajax 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.109 / defence 1.010 | Ajax attack 1.333 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.273. Ajax have an above-average attack rating of 1.333, which lifts their away xG to 1.71. Data: built from AZ Alkmaar's last 48 games and Ajax's last 48.
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 36% | Draw 23% | Ajax 41%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.77 | Draw 4.36 | Ajax 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.60 / 1.71) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet Ajax are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AZ Alkmaar's last 10 home games and Ajax's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AZ Alkmaar 80% (last 10 home games) | Ajax 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 15 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 36% | Draw 23% | Ajax 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.60 / Ajax 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.109 / def 1.010 | Ajax attack 1.333 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Ajax (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Ajax xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax FAQs
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 8 December 2024 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?
AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Ajax.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 15) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 36% chance of winning, Ajax a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Ajax will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AZ Alkmaar's attack at 1.11x the league average against Ajax's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AZ Alkmaar's last 48 games and Ajax's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
36%
2.77
23%
4.36
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.31
1.71
Ajax xG
2.77
36%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
7%
15.38
8%
12.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.71 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 48 games, going 26W 10D 12L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Ajax sit at 1.85 PPG from 48 outings (25W 14D 9L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AZ Alkmaar on 1.83 PPG, Ajax on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 14W 4D 6L across their last 24 home games, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajax have taken 1.54 points per game from their last 24 away games (10W 7D 7L).
The Goals Picture
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.19 scored and 1.56 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax in 71%.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Ajax
Blended
AZ Alkmaar (Home) vs Ajax (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax Form FAQs
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Ajax in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 26W 10D 12L in their last 48 games (1.83 PPG), while Ajax have gone 25W 14D 9L in their last 48 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Ajax away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.92 PPG; Ajax away: 1.54 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Ajax in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Ajax specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AZ Alkmaar
4
Draws
1
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Ajax?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, Ajax have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Ajax last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Ajax 1-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Ajax?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — AZ Alkmaar at 54%, Ajax at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for AZ Alkmaar and 79% for Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AZ Alkmaar and Ajax matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 79% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AZ Alkmaar and Ajax matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 79% of Ajax's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Ajax matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 75% of Ajax's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AZ Alkmaar defy the odds to beat Ajax 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Ajax 2-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.60 xG and Ajax 1.71 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Ajax attack 1.33 / defence 0.85, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 36% | Draw 23% | Ajax 41%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual AZ Alkmaar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 67%, Ajax 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Ajax's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.83 PPG, Ajax 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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