Almere City FC 2-1 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 20 as Almere City FC welcome Excelsior to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yanmar Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Almere City FC) versus 0.80 (Excelsior). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Almere City FC, 0 for Excelsior and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Excelsior trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 49% versus Excelsior 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 47% | Excelsior 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.52 xG and Excelsior 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.758 / defence 1.143 | Excelsior attack 1.050 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.459. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Excelsior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Almere City FC games / 53 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 31% | Draw 27% | Excelsior 41%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Excelsior 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 30% | Excelsior 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 2 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 31% | Draw 27% | Excelsior 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG Almere City FC 1.52 / Excelsior 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.758 / def 1.143 | Excelsior attack 1.050 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Excelsior xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Excelsior kick off?
Almere City FC vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 2 February 2024 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Excelsior?
Almere City FC 2 - 1 Excelsior.
Where is Almere City FC vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Excelsior part of?
Almere City FC vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 31% chance of winning, Excelsior a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Almere City FC and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Excelsior?
Record (3 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 2 | Excelsior 0W.
What form are Almere City FC and Excelsior in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Excelsior (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.76x the league average against Excelsior's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
31%
3.18
27%
3.65
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.27
1.75
Excelsior xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
17%
5.75
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
5%
18.27
9%
11.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.75 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 24W 13D 16L from 53 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 26L across 53 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Excelsior heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 11W 7D 8L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior's away record stands at 3W 6D 17L across 26 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Excelsior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.21 scored and 2.02 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 24W 13D 16L in their last 53 games (1.60 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 13W 14D 26L in their last 53 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Excelsior away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.54 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Excelsior in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and Excelsior runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2022, when Almere City FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Almere City FC
2
Draws
0
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 2, Excelsior have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when Almere City FC 2-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Excelsior?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 54%, Excelsior 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Almere City FC and 65% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Excelsior in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Excelsior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 50% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Almere City FC's matches and 65% of Excelsior's.
Do Almere City FC and Excelsior tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat Excelsior 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Excelsior 2-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.52 xG and Excelsior 1.75 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.14 against Excelsior attack 1.05 / defence 1.27, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 31% | Draw 27% | Excelsior 41%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 47%, Excelsior 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Excelsior's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.