Willem II 3-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Willem II (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Willem II face Jong AZ.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Jong AZ at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Willem II have posted 6W 1D 3L at Koning Willem II Stadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Willem II have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Willem II, 1 for Jong AZ and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2025, ended 0–4 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Willem II in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 58% and Jong AZ 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 51% | Jong AZ 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.56 xG and Jong AZ 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.793 / defence 0.750 | Jong AZ attack 1.204 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.483. Willem II's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jong AZ bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Jong AZ have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Willem II's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Willem II games / 74 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 43% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 33%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Jong AZ 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 40% | Jong AZ 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 43% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Willem II 1.56 / Jong AZ 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.793 / def 0.750 | Jong AZ attack 1.204 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Willem II (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Jong AZ xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Jong AZ kick off?
Willem II vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 April 2026 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Jong AZ?
Willem II 3 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is Willem II vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Jong AZ part of?
Willem II vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 43% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Willem II and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong AZ?
Record (5 meetings): Willem II 3W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are Willem II and Jong AZ in?
Willem II (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.79x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
43%
2.35
25%
4.06
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.90
1.34
Jong AZ xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
7%
14.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Willem II and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Willem II and 1.34 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 74 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 25W 17D 32L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Jong AZ's form line: 25W 14D 35L from 74 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 1.24 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Willem II have posted 1.24 PPG from 37 outings (13W 7D 17L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 16W 6D 15L from 37 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.73 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 65%.
Last 74 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 25W 17D 32L in their last 74 games (1.24 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 25W 14D 35L in their last 74 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.24 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2025, when Jong AZ won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Willem II
1
Draws
1
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong AZ?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 4, Jong AZ have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Willem II 3-0 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Jong AZ?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 57%, Jong AZ 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 51% for Willem II and 70% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 51% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Willem II's games and 65% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 51% of Willem II's matches and 70% of Jong AZ's.
Do Willem II and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Jong AZ 3-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.56 xG and Jong AZ 1.34 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.79 / defence 0.75 against Jong AZ attack 1.20 / defence 1.23, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 43% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 33%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 51%, Jong AZ 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.24 PPG, Jong AZ 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.