Willem II 2-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Almere City FC make the trip to Koning Willem II Stadion to face Willem II in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Willem II have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Willem II against 1.60 for Almere City FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Willem II, 2 for Almere City FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Willem II winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 56% versus Almere City FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 52% | Almere City FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.35 xG and Almere City FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.743 / defence 0.770 | Almere City FC attack 1.220 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.471. Willem II's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Almere City FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.220 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Willem II's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Willem II games / 35 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 36% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Almere City FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 40% | Almere City FC 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 36% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Willem II 1.35 / Almere City FC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.743 / def 0.770 | Almere City FC attack 1.220 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Almere City FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Almere City FC kick off?
Willem II vs Almere City FC kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Willem II 2 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is Willem II vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Almere City FC part of?
Willem II vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 36% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Willem II and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Almere City FC?
Record (5 meetings): Willem II 2W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 2W.
What form are Willem II and Almere City FC in?
Willem II (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Willem II's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (1.22x) against Willem II's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
36%
2.75
26%
3.90
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.73
1.38
Almere City FC xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
9%
10.96
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Willem II and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Willem II and 1.38 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II come into this having played 69 games, going 23W 15D 31L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.12 PPG from 69 outings (21W 14D 34L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Willem II against 1.12 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Willem II's home form reads 11W 7D 16L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.06 points per game from 34 outings (10W 6D 18L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.38 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
Almere City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 23W 15D 31L in their last 69 games (1.22 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 21W 14D 34L in their last 69 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Almere City FC away?
Willem II's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.18 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Willem II have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Willem II
1
Draws
2
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Almere City FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Willem II have won 5, Almere City FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Willem II 2-0 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Almere City FC?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 56%, Almere City FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Willem II) and 59% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 26% of games; Almere City FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Willem II's recent matches and 53% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Willem II's recent games and 59% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Almere City FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Almere City FC 2-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.35 xG and Almere City FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.74 / defence 0.77 against Almere City FC attack 1.22 / defence 1.12, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 36% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 38%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 52%, Almere City FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.22 PPG, Almere City FC 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.