Waalwijk 1-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 72% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 9 as Waalwijk welcome Emmen to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Waalwijk have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk at Mandemakers Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Emmen — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Emmen are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Emmen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Waalwijk, 0 for Emmen and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2026, ended 5–0 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Waalwijk trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Emmen trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 78% and Emmen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 65% | Emmen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 3.56 xG and Emmen 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.318 / defence 1.061 | Emmen attack 1.073 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.987 / away 1.506. Waalwijk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — their λ of 3.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Waalwijk games / 46 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 72% | Draw 13% | Emmen 15%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.39 | Draw 7.69 | Emmen 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Waalwijk (72%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 90% | BTTS probability 80% | Total xG 5.28. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 90% — a total xG of 5.28 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 80% reflects that both xG figures (3.56 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Waalwijk dominate the H2H record, yet Emmen are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Emmen (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
Poisson projects 5.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 90% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 80%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 72% | Draw 13% | Emmen 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 90% | BTTS 80% | xG Waalwijk 3.56 / Emmen 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.318 / def 1.061 | Emmen attack 1.073 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.987 / away 1.506 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.56
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Emmen xG
80%
BTTS
97%
Over 1.5
90%
Over 2.5
77%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Emmen kick off?
Waalwijk vs Emmen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 3 October 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Emmen?
Waalwijk 1 - 1 Emmen.
Where is Waalwijk vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Emmen part of?
Waalwijk vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 72% chance of winning, Emmen a 15% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 80% probability that both Waalwijk and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 90%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Emmen?
Record (4 meetings): Waalwijk 2W | Draws 2 | Emmen 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and Emmen in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Emmen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.32) and Emmen's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 3.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 6.6%. Close behind: 4-1 (5.9%), 3-2 (5.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 18% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
72%
1.39
13%
7.56
15%
6.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
6.6%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 1
5.9%
Home win
3 – 2
5.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.56
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
5.28
1.71
Emmen xG
1.39
72%
Home win
7.56
13%
Draw
6.81
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
97%
Over 1.5
1.03
3%
Under 1.5
33.33
90%
Over 2.5
1.11
10%
Under 2.5
10.00
77%
Over 3.5
1.30
23%
Under 3.5
4.35
61%
Over 4.5
1.64
39%
Under 4.5
2.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
80%
BTTS Yes
1.26
20%
BTTS No
4.92
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
3%
35.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.6%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 3.56 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.71 for Emmen, a combined total of 5.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waalwijk come into this having played 46 games, going 17W 16D 13L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.30 PPG from 46 outings (17W 9D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.46 PPG, Emmen on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Waalwijk's home form reads 10W 5D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 0.86 points per game from 22 outings (5W 4D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Emmen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.65 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Emmen in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Emmen in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 17W 16D 13L in their last 46 games (1.46 PPG), while Emmen have gone 17W 9D 20L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Emmen away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.59 PPG; Emmen away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 3 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2026, when Waalwijk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
3
Draws
0
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Emmen?
From 5 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, Emmen have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2026, when Waalwijk 1-1 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Emmen?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Waalwijk at 82%, Emmen at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Waalwijk and 68% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Waalwijk's games and 59% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Waalwijk's matches and 68% of Emmen's.
Do Waalwijk and Emmen tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Emmen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and Emmen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 9, as Waalwijk and Emmen drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 3.56 xG and Emmen 1.71 xG, a combined 5.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.32 / defence 1.06 against Emmen attack 1.07 / defence 1.36, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 72% | Draw 13% | Emmen 15%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 90%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 97% and landed. Over 3.5 was 77% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 80% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 65%, Emmen 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.46 PPG, Emmen 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.