VVV Venlo 3-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 1 as VVV Venlo welcome Almere City FC to Covebo Stadion - De Koel -. Kick-off is set for Friday 5 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VVV Venlo — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. VVV Venlo haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, VVV Venlo have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Almere City FC haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Almere City FC — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for VVV Venlo, 0 for Almere City FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with VVV Venlo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 53% versus Almere City FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VVV Venlo 63% | Almere City FC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.60 xG and Almere City FC 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.954 / defence 1.127 | Almere City FC attack 1.051 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.435. Data: 38 VVV Venlo games / 38 Almere City FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 36% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 41%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Almere City FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 70% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 5 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 36% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG VVV Venlo 1.60 / Almere City FC 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.954 / def 1.127 | Almere City FC attack 1.051 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Almere City FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 August 2022 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
VVV Venlo 3 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC part of?
VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 36% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both VVV Venlo and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Almere City FC?
Record (2 meetings): VVV Venlo 2W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 0W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Almere City FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VVV Venlo's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
36%
2.75
23%
4.35
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
3.30
1.70
Almere City FC xG
2.75
36%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
7%
15.04
8%
12.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.70 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VVV Venlo come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 6D 18L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W. VVV Venlo haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.08 PPG from 38 outings (11W 8D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. Almere City FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.26 PPG, Almere City FC on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
VVV Venlo's home form reads 7W 4D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Pre-Season
Almere City FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 14W 6D 18L in their last 38 games (1.26 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 11W 8D 19L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Almere City FC away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.32 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2022, when VVV Venlo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
VVV Venlo
2
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Almere City FC?
From 8 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 5, Almere City FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Almere City FC?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VVV Venlo at 63%, Almere City FC at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for VVV Venlo and 74% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of VVV Venlo's games and 74% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of VVV Venlo's matches and 74% of Almere City FC's.
Do VVV Venlo and Almere City FC tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VVV Venlo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat Almere City FC 3-0 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.60 xG and Almere City FC 1.70 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. VVV Venlo beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Almere City FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.95 / defence 1.13 against Almere City FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.02, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 36% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 41%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual VVV Venlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 63%, Almere City FC 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Almere City FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.26 PPG, Almere City FC 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.