Vitesse 0-4 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vitesse at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
GelreDome plays host to Vitesse versus Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Friday 7 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vitesse's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitesse have posted 5W 2D 3L at GelreDome — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cambuur have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Vitesse, 2.10 for Cambuur — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Vitesse have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cambuur in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Vitesse 4W, Cambuur 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Vitesse half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 62% versus Cambuur 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 70% | Cambuur 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.57 xG and Cambuur 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.983 / defence 1.048 | Cambuur attack 1.035 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.738 / away 1.429. Data: 50 Vitesse games / 52 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 39% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 38%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Cambuur 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitesse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 60% | Cambuur 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 7 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 39% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Vitesse 1.57 / Cambuur 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.983 / def 1.048 | Cambuur attack 1.035 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.738 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Cambuur xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Cambuur kick off?
Vitesse vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 November 2025 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Cambuur?
Vitesse 0 - 4 Cambuur.
Where is Vitesse vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Cambuur part of?
Vitesse vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 39% chance of winning, Cambuur a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Vitesse and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Cambuur?
Record (6 meetings): Vitesse 4W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 2W.
What form are Vitesse and Cambuur in?
Vitesse (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Cambuur (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vitesse's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (1.03x) against Vitesse's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 50/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
39%
2.59
24%
4.21
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.12
1.55
Cambuur xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
8%
12.21
8%
12.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.55 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Vitesse have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 16W 14D 20L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur's form line: 30W 9D 11L from 50 games, 1.98 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vitesse.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vitesse have posted 1.38 PPG from 24 outings (9W 6D 9L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 13W 5D 6L from 24 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vitesse are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.86 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cambuur in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 16W 14D 20L in their last 50 games (1.24 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 30W 9D 11L in their last 50 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.38 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Vitesse or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitesse have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Cambuur in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 0-6 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Vitesse
0
Draws
4
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Cambuur?
From 8 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 4, Cambuur have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Cambuur 2-1 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 62%, Cambuur 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Vitesse) and 46% (Cambuur). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Vitesse's games and 50% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Vitesse's matches and 46% of Cambuur's.
Do Vitesse and Cambuur tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cambuur run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Vitesse 0-4 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.57 xG and Cambuur 1.55 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Cambuur outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Cambuur attack 1.03 / defence 0.92, drawn from 50/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 39% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 38%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 70%, Cambuur 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.