Telstar 2-5 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Excelsior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Excelsior travel to BUKO Stadion to take on Telstar. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Telstar's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 2L across 6 games at BUKO Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Excelsior — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Excelsior have gone 5W 0D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (2.14 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Excelsior's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Telstar's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Telstar in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Excelsior in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 54% versus Excelsior 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Telstar 62% | Excelsior 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.27 xG and Excelsior 2.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.971 / defence 1.425 | Excelsior attack 1.082 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.532. Data: 13 Telstar games / 13 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 19% | Draw 19% | Excelsior 62%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 5.26 | Draw 5.26 | Excelsior 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Excelsior (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 2.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 83% | Excelsior 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 19% | Draw 19% | Excelsior 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 65% | xG Telstar 1.27 / Excelsior 2.36 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.971 / def 1.425 | Excelsior attack 1.082 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.532 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
2.36
Excelsior xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Excelsior kick off?
Telstar vs Excelsior kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Excelsior?
Telstar 2 - 5 Excelsior.
Where is Telstar vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Excelsior part of?
Telstar vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 19% chance of winning, Excelsior a 62% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Telstar and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Excelsior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Telstar and Excelsior in?
Telstar (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Excelsior (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.97) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 2.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 1-3 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
19%
5.14
19%
5.27
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.64
2.36
Excelsior xG
5.14
19%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
9%
10.61
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
2%
54.53
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Telstar and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Telstar and 2.36 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Excelsior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Telstar's recent record stands at 4W 4D 5L from 13 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 8W 1D 4L across 13 games — 1.92 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Excelsior by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Telstar heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Telstar have managed 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior's away record stands at 4W 0D 2L across 6 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Telstar are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.08 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Excelsior in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 8W 1D 4L in their last 13 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Excelsior away?
Excelsior's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.00 PPG; Excelsior away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Telstar or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Telstar have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Excelsior in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Telstar and Excelsior runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Excelsior won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Telstar's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Telstar
2
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, Telstar have won 1, Excelsior have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Excelsior 2-2 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Telstar at 83%, Excelsior at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Telstar) and 67% (Excelsior). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Telstar's games and 50% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Telstar's matches and 67% of Excelsior's.
Do Telstar and Excelsior tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Telstar 2-5 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.27 xG and Excelsior 2.36 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Excelsior outscored their 2.36 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.97 / defence 1.43 against Excelsior attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 19% | Draw 19% | Excelsior 62%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 62%, Excelsior 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.