Roda 1-3 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host NAC Breda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Roda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Roda) versus 1.60 (NAC Breda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Roda have won 0, NAC Breda 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 54% versus NAC Breda 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 58% | NAC Breda 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.97 xG and NAC Breda 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.128 / defence 0.886 | NAC Breda attack 0.953 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.434. Data: 41 Roda games / 41 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 55% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 23%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | NAC Breda 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Roda (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | NAC Breda 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 55% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Roda 1.97 / NAC Breda 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.128 / def 0.886 | NAC Breda attack 0.953 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Roda (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.21
NAC Breda xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs NAC Breda kick off?
Roda vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 August 2022 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs NAC Breda?
Roda 1 - 3 NAC Breda.
Where is Roda vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs NAC Breda part of?
Roda vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 55% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Roda and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and NAC Breda?
Record (2 meetings): Roda 0W | Draws 2 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are Roda and NAC Breda in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Roda's attack at 1.13x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
55%
1.82
22%
4.59
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Roda xG
Total xG
3.18
1.21
NAC Breda xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
3%
30.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Roda and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Roda and 1.21 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Roda's recent record stands at 21W 13D 9L from 43 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 14L across 43 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.77 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Roda have managed 11W 6D 4L from 21 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 6W 4D 11L across 21 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.51 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 21W 13D 9L in their last 43 games (1.77 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 18W 11D 14L in their last 43 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or NAC Breda away?
Roda's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.86 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Roda or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and NAC Breda runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
NAC Breda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Roda
2
Draws
4
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and NAC Breda?
From 8 meetings on record, Roda have won 2, NAC Breda have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Roda 0-5 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 52%, NAC Breda 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Roda) and 62% (NAC Breda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; NAC Breda in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Roda's recent matches and 52% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Roda's matches and 62% of NAC Breda's.
Do Roda and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Roda 1-3 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.97 xG and NAC Breda 1.21 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Roda fell 1.0 short of their projected output. NAC Breda outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.13 / defence 0.89 against NAC Breda attack 0.95 / defence 1.15, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 55% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 23%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a NAC Breda win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 58%, NAC Breda 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
NAC Breda's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.77 PPG, NAC Breda 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.