Roda 1-2 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host FC OSS at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 3W 4D 3L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC OSS have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Roda at 1.10 PPG versus FC OSS's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Roda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC OSS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Roda have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while FC OSS have managed just 1 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Roda winning.
The historical record gives Roda a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Roda in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 60% versus FC OSS 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 58% | FC OSS 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.51 xG and FC OSS 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.003 / defence 0.987 | FC OSS attack 0.775 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.736 / away 1.540. Data: 60 Roda games / 60 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 44% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 29%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | FC OSS 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | FC OSS 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 44% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Roda 1.51 / FC OSS 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.003 / def 0.987 | FC OSS attack 0.775 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.736 / away 1.540 • Poisson stance: Roda (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.18
FC OSS xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs FC OSS kick off?
Roda vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 January 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs FC OSS?
Roda 1 - 2 FC OSS.
Where is Roda vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs FC OSS part of?
Roda vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 44% chance of winning, FC OSS a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Roda and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC OSS?
Record (9 meetings): Roda 6W | Draws 2 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are Roda and FC OSS in?
Roda (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Roda's attack at 1.00x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.77
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Roda xG
Total xG
2.69
1.18
FC OSS xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
6%
15.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Roda and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Roda and 1.18 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Roda have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 22W 18D 20L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS's form line: 13W 22D 25L from 60 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.40 PPG, FC OSS on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.55 PPG from 29 outings (12W 9D 8L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 2W 15D 12L from 29 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.02 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 22W 18D 20L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 13W 22D 25L in their last 60 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or FC OSS away?
Roda's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.55 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and FC OSS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2022, when FC OSS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Roda
2
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 6, FC OSS have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Roda 1-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Roda and FC OSS?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 48%, FC OSS 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Roda) and 34% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; FC OSS in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Roda's recent matches and 45% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Roda's recent games and 34% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and FC OSS tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat Roda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Roda 1-2 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.51 xG and FC OSS 1.18 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC OSS outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against FC OSS attack 0.78 / defence 0.87, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 44% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 29%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual FC OSS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 58%, FC OSS 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.40 PPG, FC OSS 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.