Roda 1-0 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host Dordrecht at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Roda at 1.00 PPG versus Dordrecht's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Roda: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Dordrecht, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with Roda winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Roda and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Roda trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Dordrecht trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 59% and Dordrecht 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 58% | Dordrecht 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.85 xG and Dordrecht 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.033 / defence 1.075 | Dordrecht attack 0.863 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.344. Data: 58 Roda games / 59 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 52% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 26%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Dordrecht 3.85. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 70% | Dordrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 52% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Roda 1.85 / Dordrecht 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.033 / def 1.075 | Dordrecht attack 0.863 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Roda (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Dordrecht xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Dordrecht kick off?
Roda vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 January 2023 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Dordrecht?
Roda 1 - 0 Dordrecht.
Where is Roda vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Dordrecht part of?
Roda vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 52% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Roda and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Dordrecht?
Record (3 meetings): Roda 3W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are Roda and Dordrecht in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Roda's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
52%
1.94
23%
4.40
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Roda xG
Total xG
3.10
1.25
Dordrecht xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
4%
24.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Roda and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Roda and 1.25 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 25W 17D 17L from 59 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 29L across 59 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dordrecht heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 14W 8D 7L from 29 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 6W 6D 17L across 29 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.31 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 63%.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 25W 17D 17L in their last 59 games (1.56 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 16W 14D 29L in their last 59 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Dordrecht away?
Roda's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.72 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Mar 2022, when Roda won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Roda
0
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 6, Dordrecht have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Dordrecht 0-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Dordrecht?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Roda at 62%, Dordrecht at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Roda and 72% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Roda's games and 69% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Roda's matches and 72% of Dordrecht's.
Do Roda and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out Dordrecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Dordrecht 1-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.85 xG and Dordrecht 1.25 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Roda fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Dordrecht landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.03 / defence 1.07 against Dordrecht attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 52% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 26%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 58%, Dordrecht 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Dordrecht's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.