Roda 1-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host Dordrecht at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 25 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Roda have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Roda, 3 for Dordrecht and 0 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Dordrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Roda trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Dordrecht trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 57% versus Dordrecht 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 56% | Dordrecht 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.53 xG and Dordrecht 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.026 / defence 0.867 | Dordrecht attack 0.858 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.723 / away 1.468. Data: 54 Roda games / 54 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 47% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 27%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Dordrecht 3.70. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Roda 50% | Dordrecht 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 47% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Roda 1.53 / Dordrecht 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.026 / def 0.867 | Dordrecht attack 0.858 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.723 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Roda (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Dordrecht xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Dordrecht kick off?
Roda vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 25 November 2025 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Dordrecht?
Roda 1 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is Roda vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Dordrecht part of?
Roda vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 47% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Roda and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Dordrecht?
Record (7 meetings): Roda 4W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 3W.
What form are Roda and Dordrecht in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Roda's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.92
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Roda xG
Total xG
2.62
1.09
Dordrecht xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
6%
17.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Roda and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Roda and 1.09 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 20W 16D 18L from 54 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 15L across 54 games — 1.65 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.41 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 12W 9D 6L from 27 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 10W 5D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.63 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Dordrecht in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 20W 16D 18L in their last 54 games (1.41 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 25W 14D 15L in their last 54 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Dordrecht away?
Roda's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.67 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Roda or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Roda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Mar 2022, when Roda won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Roda
0
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 6, Dordrecht have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Dordrecht 0-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Dordrecht?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 44%, Dordrecht 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Roda) and 52% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dordrecht in 33%; Dordrecht in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Dordrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Roda's recent matches and 37% of Dordrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Roda's recent games and 52% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat Roda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Roda 1-2 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.53 xG and Dordrecht 1.09 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dordrecht outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.03 / defence 0.87 against Dordrecht attack 0.86 / defence 0.86, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 47% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 27%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Dordrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, Dordrecht 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.41 PPG, Dordrecht 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.