PEC Zwolle 3-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Roda travel to MAC³PARK Stadion to take on PEC Zwolle. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 May 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
PEC Zwolle's home record at MAC³PARK Stadion: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MAC³PARK Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
PEC Zwolle are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for PEC Zwolle, 0 for Roda and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
PEC Zwolle trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Roda trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 47% versus Roda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 50% | Roda 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 3.02 xG and Roda 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.596 / defence 0.717 | Roda attack 0.885 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.318. PEC Zwolle carry an above-average attack strength of 1.596 — their λ of 3.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PEC Zwolle's defence rating of 0.717 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 PEC Zwolle games / 74 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 81% | Draw 12% | Roda 7%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.23 | Draw 8.33 | Roda 14.29. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (81%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: PEC Zwolle 30% | Roda 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 81% | Draw 12% | Roda 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 54% | xG PEC Zwolle 3.02 / Roda 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 1.596 / def 0.717 | Roda attack 0.885 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.02
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Roda xG
54%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Roda kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 May 2023 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Roda?
PEC Zwolle 3 - 1 Roda.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Roda part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Roda is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 81% chance of winning, Roda a 7% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Roda?
Record (1 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 0 | Roda 0W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Roda in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Roda (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 1.60x the league average against Roda's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 3.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.6%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
81%
1.24
12%
8.38
7%
13.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.02
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.86
0.84
Roda xG
1.24
81%
Home win
8.38
12%
Draw
13.87
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
5%
20.51
Win to Nil
35%
2.85
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 3.02 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 0.84 for Roda, a combined total of 3.86.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Roda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 32W 10D 28L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Roda's form line: 28W 17D 25L from 70 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: PEC Zwolle on 1.51 PPG, Roda on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.66 PPG from 35 outings (17W 7D 11L).
On the road, Roda have gone 11W 9D 15L from 35 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.60 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Roda in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 32W 10D 28L in their last 70 games (1.51 PPG), while Roda have gone 28W 17D 25L in their last 70 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Roda away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.66 PPG; Roda away: 1.20 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Roda in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and Roda runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
0
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Roda?
From 2 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 2, Roda have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2023, when PEC Zwolle 3-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Roda?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 54%, Roda 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (PEC Zwolle) and 51% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Roda in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 54% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 51% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Roda tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Roda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Roda 3-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 3.02 xG and Roda 0.84 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.60 / defence 0.72 against Roda attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 81% | Draw 12% | Roda 7%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 81%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 50%, Roda 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Roda's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.51 PPG, Roda 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.51 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.