PEC Zwolle 1-1 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Jong Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAC³PARK Stadion plays host to PEC Zwolle versus Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 30 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
PEC Zwolle's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MAC³PARK Stadion, PEC Zwolle have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MAC³PARK Stadion this season.
Jong Ajax (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. PEC Zwolle's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Jong Ajax's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Jong Ajax in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
PEC Zwolle half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 48% and Jong Ajax 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 45% | Jong Ajax 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 2.20 xG and Jong Ajax 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.059 / defence 1.265 | Jong Ajax attack 0.742 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.373. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 PEC Zwolle games / 46 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 57% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 21%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Jong Ajax 4.76. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 90% | Jong Ajax 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 57% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 65% | xG PEC Zwolle 2.20 / Jong Ajax 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 1.059 / def 1.265 | Jong Ajax attack 0.742 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Jong Ajax xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Jong Ajax kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 September 2022 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Jong Ajax?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 1 Jong Ajax.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Jong Ajax part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 57% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Jong Ajax?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Jong Ajax in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (1.06) and Jong Ajax's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.74x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
57%
1.74
21%
4.69
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.49
1.29
Jong Ajax xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
11%
9.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
2%
42.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.29 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 13W 7D 22L from 42 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Ajax, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 11L across 42 games — 1.69 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jong Ajax by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PEC Zwolle heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 5W 6D 10L from 21 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Ajax's away record stands at 5W 6D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong Ajax's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 2.19 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 76%.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 13W 7D 22L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 20W 11D 11L in their last 42 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Jong Ajax away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.00 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
PEC Zwolle
2
Draws
0
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Jong Ajax?
From 2 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 0, Jong Ajax have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2023, when Jong Ajax 0-0 PEC Zwolle.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for PEC Zwolle, 71% for Jong Ajax — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (PEC Zwolle) and 62% (Jong Ajax).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of PEC Zwolle's games and 71% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 62% of Jong Ajax's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle and Jong Ajax share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 9, as PEC Zwolle and Jong Ajax drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 2.20 xG and Jong Ajax 1.29 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. PEC Zwolle fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.06 / defence 1.26 against Jong Ajax attack 0.74 / defence 1.23, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 57% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 21%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 45%, Jong Ajax 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.