NAC Breda 4-2 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 35 as NAC Breda welcome Roda to Rat Verlegh Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 April 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
NAC Breda's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Rat Verlegh Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
NAC Breda are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for NAC Breda, 0 for Roda and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 3–1 with NAC Breda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Roda trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 61% versus Roda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 62% | Roda 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.84 xG and Roda 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.079 / defence 1.070 | Roda attack 0.820 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.711 / away 1.308. Data: 72 NAC Breda games / 72 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 54% | Draw 23% | Roda 24%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Roda 4.17. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 60% | Roda 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 54% | Draw 23% | Roda 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG NAC Breda 1.84 / Roda 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.079 / def 1.070 | Roda attack 0.820 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.711 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Roda xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Roda kick off?
NAC Breda vs Roda kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Roda?
NAC Breda 4 - 2 Roda.
Where is NAC Breda vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Roda part of?
NAC Breda vs Roda is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 54% chance of winning, Roda a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both NAC Breda and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Roda?
Record (3 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 2 | Roda 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and Roda in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Roda (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 1.08x the league average against Roda's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
54%
1.87
23%
4.38
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.99
1.15
Roda xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
4%
26.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.15 for Roda, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 74 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 32W 16D 26L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Roda's form line: 30W 19D 25L from 74 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.51 PPG, Roda on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.81 PPG from 37 outings (19W 10D 8L).
On the road, Roda have gone 13W 10D 14L from 37 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.65 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Roda in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 32W 16D 26L in their last 74 games (1.51 PPG), while Roda have gone 30W 19D 25L in their last 74 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Roda away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.81 PPG; Roda away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Roda?
From 8 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 4, Roda have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Roda 0-5 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Roda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 57%, Roda 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (NAC Breda) and 54% (Roda).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Roda in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of NAC Breda's games and 54% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of NAC Breda's recent games and 54% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Roda tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Roda in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Roda 4-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.84 xG and Roda 1.15 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Roda outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.08 / defence 1.07 against Roda attack 0.82 / defence 1.00, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 54% | Draw 23% | Roda 24%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 62%, Roda 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.51 PPG, Roda 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.