NAC Breda vs Jong AZ – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Jong AZ travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 March 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 5W 2D 3L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jong AZ — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (NAC Breda) versus 1.40 (Jong AZ). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: NAC Breda have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 6 past contests while Jong AZ have managed just 1 wins.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2024, ended 3–2 with NAC Breda winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both NAC Breda and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 53% versus Jong AZ 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 56% | Jong AZ 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 2.08 xG and Jong AZ 2.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.913 / defence 1.205 | Jong AZ attack 1.601 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Jong AZ bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Jong AZ have an above-average attack strength of 1.601 — the away xG of 2.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 NAC Breda games / 49 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 28% | Draw 18% | Jong AZ 54%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.57 | Draw 5.56 | Jong AZ 1.85. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (18%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 87% | BTTS probability 82% | Total xG 4.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 87% — a total xG of 4.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 82% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 2.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 87% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 82%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 40% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 28% | Draw 18% | Jong AZ 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 87% | BTTS 82% | xG NAC Breda 2.08 / Jong AZ 2.82 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.913 / def 1.205 | Jong AZ attack 1.601 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
2.82
Jong AZ xG
82%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Jong AZ kick off?
NAC Breda vs Jong AZ is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 March 2027 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Where is NAC Breda vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Jong AZ part of?
NAC Breda vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 28% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 54% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 82% probability that both NAC Breda and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 87%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong AZ?
Record (6 meetings): NAC Breda 5W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Jong AZ in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.91x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 2.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-2 carries the highest individual probability at 6.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (6.2%), 2-3 (6.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 19% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
28%
3.52
18%
5.67
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
6.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
6.2%
Away win
2 – 3
6.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
4.90
2.82
Jong AZ xG
3.52
28%
Home win
5.67
18%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
87%
Over 2.5
1.15
13%
Under 2.5
7.69
72%
Over 3.5
1.39
28%
Under 3.5
3.57
54%
Over 4.5
1.85
46%
Under 4.5
2.17
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
82%
BTTS Yes
1.22
18%
BTTS No
5.65
Clean Sheet
6%
16.78
12%
8.00
Win to Nil
2%
59.12
7%
14.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 1.5 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.4%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for NAC Breda and 2.82 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 4.90.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 12W 13D 20L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ's form line: 16W 6D 23L from 45 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.09 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (8W 5D 9L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 10W 3D 9L from 22 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.87 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 12W 13D 20L in their last 45 games (1.09 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 16W 6D 23L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.32 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
NAC Breda have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when Jong AZ won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
NAC Breda
0
Draws
1
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong AZ?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 5, Jong AZ have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2024, when Jong AZ 2-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Jong AZ?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 50%, Jong AZ 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for NAC Breda and 86% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 73% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of NAC Breda's games and 77% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of NAC Breda's matches and 86% of Jong AZ's.
Do NAC Breda and Jong AZ tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.