NAC Breda 1-0 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Helmond Sport travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 4W 2D 1L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.14 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helmond Sport stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's away record: 1W 2D 4L from 7 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: NAC Breda 1.40 PPG, Helmond Sport 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Helmond Sport in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 50% versus Helmond Sport 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 56% | Helmond Sport 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.69 xG and Helmond Sport 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.197 / defence 0.882 | Helmond Sport attack 0.640 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.517. Data: 16 NAC Breda games / 16 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 57% | Draw 24% | Helmond Sport 19%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Helmond Sport 5.26. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 57% | Helmond Sport 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 57% | Draw 24% | Helmond Sport 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG NAC Breda 1.69 / Helmond Sport 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.197 / def 0.882 | Helmond Sport attack 0.640 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.517 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Helmond Sport xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport kick off?
NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport?
NAC Breda 1 - 0 Helmond Sport.
Where is NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport part of?
NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 57% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both NAC Breda and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Helmond Sport?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NAC Breda and Helmond Sport in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 1.20x the league average against Helmond Sport's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.17
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.55
0.86
Helmond Sport xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
3%
28.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for NAC Breda and 0.86 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 5W 5D 6L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport's form line: 4W 3D 9L from 16 games, 0.94 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.25 PPG, Helmond Sport on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 2.00 PPG from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 0.94 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Helmond Sport away?
NAC Breda's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 2.00 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.71 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or Helmond Sport been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Helmond Sport in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and Helmond Sport runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Helmond Sport won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Helmond Sport?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2024, when Helmond Sport 1-0 NAC Breda.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Helmond Sport see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 57%, Helmond Sport 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (NAC Breda) and 43% (Helmond Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Helmond Sport in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 43% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of NAC Breda's matches and 43% of Helmond Sport's.
Do NAC Breda and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out Helmond Sport 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Helmond Sport 1-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.69 xG and Helmond Sport 0.86 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Helmond Sport landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.20 / defence 0.88 against Helmond Sport attack 0.64 / defence 1.17, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 57% | Draw 24% | Helmond Sport 19%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 56%, Helmond Sport 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.25 PPG, Helmond Sport 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.