NAC Breda 2-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Friday 10 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, De Graafschap in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: NAC Breda 1W, De Graafschap 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 59% versus De Graafschap 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 62% | De Graafschap 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.91 xG and De Graafschap 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.089 / defence 0.949 | De Graafschap attack 1.135 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.265. Data: 61 NAC Breda games / 61 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 50% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 27%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | De Graafschap 3.70. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 70% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 50% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG NAC Breda 1.91 / De Graafschap 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.089 / def 0.949 | De Graafschap attack 1.135 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.36
De Graafschap xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs De Graafschap kick off?
NAC Breda vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 February 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
NAC Breda 2 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is NAC Breda vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs De Graafschap part of?
NAC Breda vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 50% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both NAC Breda and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and De Graafschap?
Record (3 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and De Graafschap in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
NAC Breda's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.14x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
50%
1.99
22%
4.48
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.27
1.36
De Graafschap xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
4%
24.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.36 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 25W 15D 23L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 22W 18D 23L from 63 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-L. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.33 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.74 PPG from 31 outings (15W 9D 7L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 13W 7D 11L from 31 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.40 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 25W 15D 23L in their last 63 games (1.43 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 22W 18D 23L in their last 63 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or De Graafschap away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.74 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.48 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and De Graafschap?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, De Graafschap have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when NAC Breda 0-0 De Graafschap.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 55%, De Graafschap 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (NAC Breda) and 68% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; De Graafschap in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of NAC Breda's games and 61% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of NAC Breda's matches and 68% of De Graafschap's.
Do NAC Breda and De Graafschap tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat De Graafschap 2-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.91 xG and De Graafschap 1.36 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against De Graafschap attack 1.14 / defence 1.04, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 50% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 27%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 62%, De Graafschap 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.43 PPG, De Graafschap 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.