MVV 1-3 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates MVV at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Dordrecht travel to De Geusselt to take on MVV. The game is scheduled for Monday 4 March 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, MVV have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV at De Geusselt this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: MVV 1.80 PPG, Dordrecht 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. MVV register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dordrecht in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for MVV, 1 for Dordrecht and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
MVV trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Dordrecht trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — MVV 66% and Dordrecht 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 69% | Dordrecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 2.41 xG and Dordrecht 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.283 / defence 1.015 | Dordrecht attack 0.987 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.339. MVV carry an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — their λ of 2.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 65 MVV games / 65 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 60% | Draw 21% | Dordrecht 19%. Fair-value odds: MVV 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Dordrecht 5.26. The model has a clear lean to MVV (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.41 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is MVV at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: MVV 60% | Dordrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Monday 4 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 60% | Draw 21% | Dordrecht 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 68% | xG MVV 2.41 / Dordrecht 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.283 / def 1.015 | Dordrecht attack 0.987 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: MVV (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Dordrecht xG
68%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Dordrecht kick off?
MVV vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 4 March 2024 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Dordrecht?
MVV 1 - 3 Dordrecht.
Where is MVV vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Dordrecht part of?
MVV vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 60% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both MVV and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Dordrecht?
Record (5 meetings): MVV 3W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are MVV and Dordrecht in?
MVV (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates MVV's attack at 1.28x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.73
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
MVV xG
Total xG
3.75
1.34
Dordrecht xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
9%
11.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
2%
58.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are MVV and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for MVV and 1.34 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, MVV have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 27W 12D 26L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht's form line: 21W 18D 26L from 65 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.43 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, MVV have posted 1.81 PPG from 32 outings (17W 7D 8L).
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 7W 9D 16L from 32 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
MVV are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.40 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 27W 12D 26L in their last 65 games (1.43 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 21W 18D 26L in their last 65 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Dordrecht away?
MVV's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.81 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between MVV and Dordrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2025, when Dordrecht won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
MVV
2
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 4, Dordrecht have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Dordrecht 1-1 MVV.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — MVV at 69%, Dordrecht at 66%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (MVV) and 53% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of MVV's games and 66% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of MVV's matches and 53% of Dordrecht's.
Do MVV and Dordrecht tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat MVV 1-3 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.41 xG and Dordrecht 1.34 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. MVV fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Dordrecht outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.28 / defence 1.01 against Dordrecht attack 0.99 / defence 1.16, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 60% | Draw 21% | Dordrecht 19%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Dordrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 69%, Dordrecht 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.43 PPG, Dordrecht 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.