MVV 1-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as MVV face Den Bosch.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Den Bosch travel to De Geusselt to take on MVV in Eerste Divisie (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
MVV — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
MVV at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Den Bosch have recorded 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Den Bosch's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: MVV 1.10 PPG, Den Bosch 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for MVV, 2 for Den Bosch and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2023, ended MVV 2–3 Den Bosch — a Den Bosch win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
MVV trading profile (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Den Bosch trading profile (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 65% versus Den Bosch 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 71% | Den Bosch 65%). Note also that Den Bosch surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while MVV recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.81 xG and Den Bosch 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.088 / defence 1.233 | Den Bosch attack 0.733 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.337. Den Bosch's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. MVV's defence rating of 1.233 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Den Bosch's projected output up. Data: built from MVV's last 68 games and Den Bosch's last 68.
Result probabilities: MVV 51% | Draw 25% | Den Bosch 24%. Fair-value odds: MVV 1.98 | Draw 4.01 | Den Bosch 4.10. MVV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.21) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates MVV as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on MVV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (MVV's last 10 home games and Den Bosch's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: MVV 60% (last 10 home games) | Den Bosch 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 31 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Saturday 23 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 51% | Draw 25% | Den Bosch 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG MVV 1.81 / Den Bosch 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.088 / def 1.233 | Den Bosch attack 0.733 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: MVV (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Den Bosch xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ MVV vs Den Bosch FAQs
What time does MVV vs Den Bosch kick off?
MVV vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 23 March 2024 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Den Bosch?
MVV 1 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is MVV vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Den Bosch part of?
MVV vs Den Bosch is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 31) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 51% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both MVV and Den Bosch will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will MVV vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from MVV's attack rating (1.09) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from MVV's last 68 games and Den Bosch's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
51%
1.98
25%
4.01
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
MVV xG
Total xG
3.02
1.21
Den Bosch xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
4%
25.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ MVV vs Den Bosch Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are MVV and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for MVV and 1.21 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
MVV's recent record stands at 27W 12D 29L from 68 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 40L across 68 games — 0.85 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours MVV by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, MVV have managed 16W 7D 10L from their last 33 home games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 5W 5D 23L across their last 33 away games, a 0.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
MVV are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.09 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
MVV (Home) vs Den Bosch (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
MVV
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ MVV vs Den Bosch Form FAQs
What form are MVV and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 27W 12D 29L in their last 68 games (1.37 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 15W 13D 40L in their last 68 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Den Bosch away?
MVV's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.67 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Jan 2025, when MVV won MVV 5-0 Den Bosch.
MVV's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
MVV
3
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ MVV vs Den Bosch H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Den Bosch?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, MVV have won 4, Den Bosch have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Den Bosch last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Den Bosch 2-2 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Den Bosch?
MVV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 67%, Den Bosch 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for MVV and 61% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ MVV vs Den Bosch Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in MVV and Den Bosch matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of MVV's recent matches and 42% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are MVV and Den Bosch matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of MVV's matches and 61% of Den Bosch's.
Do MVV and Den Bosch matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of MVV's recent matches and 70% of Den Bosch's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as MVV edge out Den Bosch 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat Den Bosch 1-0 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.81 xG and Den Bosch 1.21 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. MVV fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.09 / defence 1.23 against Den Bosch attack 0.73 / defence 1.02, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 51% | Draw 25% | Den Bosch 24%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 71%, Den Bosch 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, MVV arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. MVV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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