Jong Utrecht 1-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host NAC Breda at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 4 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jong Utrecht at Stadion Galgenwaard this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, NAC Breda have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour NAC Breda — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Jong Utrecht, 0 for NAC Breda and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 50% versus NAC Breda 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 59% | NAC Breda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 0.97 xG and NAC Breda 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.595 / defence 1.423 | NAC Breda attack 0.892 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.430. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.595 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing Jong Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Jong Utrecht games / 32 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 19% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 56%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | NAC Breda 1.79. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Jong Utrecht 30% | NAC Breda 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Monday 4 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 19% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Jong Utrecht 0.97 / NAC Breda 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.595 / def 1.423 | NAC Breda attack 0.892 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.82
NAC Breda xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 4 April 2022 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda part of?
Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 19% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda?
Record (1 meetings): Jong Utrecht 0W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
19%
5.17
24%
4.14
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.79
1.82
NAC Breda xG
5.17
19%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
16%
6.15
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
3%
31.80
21%
4.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.82 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 32 games, going 8W 4D 20L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.53 PPG from 32 outings (13W 10D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 4W 0D 12L across 16 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.12 points per game from 16 outings (5W 3D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.53 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 8W 4D 20L in their last 32 games (0.88 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 13W 10D 9L in their last 32 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.75 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Jong Utrecht or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Feb 2023, when Jong Utrecht won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
2
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, NAC Breda have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when NAC Breda 3-1 Jong Utrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 38%, NAC Breda 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Jong Utrecht) and 56% (NAC Breda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 56% of games; NAC Breda in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 44% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 56% of NAC Breda's.
Do Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Utrecht defy the odds to beat NAC Breda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat NAC Breda 1-0 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 0.97 xG and NAC Breda 1.82 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. NAC Breda landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.59 / defence 1.42 against NAC Breda attack 0.89 / defence 1.33, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 19% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 56%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Jong Utrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 59%, NAC Breda 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Jong Utrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.