Jong Utrecht 0-2 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong AZ make the trip to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch to face Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Monday 9 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong Utrecht have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Jong Utrecht, 1.20 for Jong AZ — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jong Utrecht lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Jong AZ winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 53% versus Jong AZ 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 60% | Jong AZ 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.30 xG and Jong AZ 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.769 / defence 0.883 | Jong AZ attack 0.873 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.360. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Jong Utrecht games / 55 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 42% | Draw 28% | Jong AZ 30%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Jong AZ 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 20% | Jong AZ 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 9 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 42% | Draw 28% | Jong AZ 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.30 / Jong AZ 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.769 / def 0.883 | Jong AZ attack 0.873 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Jong AZ xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 9 January 2023 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 2 Jong AZ.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 42% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ?
Record (2 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.77) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.87x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 56/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.61
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.35
1.05
Jong AZ xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.05 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 15W 8D 32L from 55 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 19W 10D 26L across 55 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 1.22 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 7W 2D 17L from 26 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 7W 4D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.22 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 15W 8D 32L in their last 55 games (0.96 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 19W 10D 26L in their last 55 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.88 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 4-0 on 17 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
1
Draws
7
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, Jong AZ have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Jong AZ 1-4 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 31%, Jong AZ 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Jong Utrecht) and 54% (Jong AZ).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 54% of games; Jong AZ in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 42% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 54% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Jong Utrecht 0-2 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.30 xG and Jong AZ 1.05 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong Utrecht fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Jong AZ outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.77 / defence 0.88 against Jong AZ attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 42% | Draw 28% | Jong AZ 30%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 60%, Jong AZ 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jong AZ's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.96 PPG, Jong AZ 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.