Jong PSV U21 1-2 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VVV Venlo at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host VVV Venlo at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie (matchday 23). Kick-off is Monday 27 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jong PSV U21 at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, VVV Venlo stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. VVV Venlo's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Jong PSV U21's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Jong PSV U21, 2 for VVV Venlo and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2024, ended Jong PSV U21 2–0 VVV Venlo — a Jong PSV U21 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 65% and VVV Venlo 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 73% | VVV Venlo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 2.08 xG and VVV Venlo 2.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.177 / defence 1.629 | VVV Venlo attack 1.162 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.300. Jong PSV U21's defence rating of 1.629 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing VVV Venlo's projected output up. Data: built from Jong PSV U21's last 60 games and VVV Venlo's last 60.
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 33% | Draw 19% | VVV Venlo 47%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.99 | Draw 5.16 | VVV Venlo 2.12. VVV Venlo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS Yes probability 80% | Total xG 4.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 80% — both xG figures (2.08 / 2.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VVV Venlo at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.54 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 83% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and VVV Venlo's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 80% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong PSV U21 90% (last 10 home games) | VVV Venlo 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 23 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 27 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 33% | Draw 19% | VVV Venlo 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% (Under 17%) | BTTS Yes 80% (No 20%) | xG Jong PSV U21 2.08 / VVV Venlo 2.46 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.177 / def 1.629 | VVV Venlo attack 1.162 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
2.46
VVV Venlo xG
80%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo FAQs
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 27 January 2025 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 2 VVV Venlo.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 23) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 33% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 47% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 80% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong PSV U21's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 2.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong PSV U21's last 60 games and VVV Venlo's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-2, at 7.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (6.7%), 1-1 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
33%
2.99
19%
5.16
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
6.7%
Away win
2 – 1
5.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
4.54
2.46
VVV Venlo xG
2.99
33%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
48%
Over 4.5
2.08
52%
Under 4.5
1.92
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
80%
BTTS Yes
1.25
20%
BTTS No
5.05
Clean Sheet
9%
11.72
13%
8.00
Win to Nil
3%
35.08
6%
16.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.0%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 2.46 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 4.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong PSV U21 come into this having played 60 games, going 17W 10D 33L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, VVV Venlo sit at 1.17 PPG from 60 outings (19W 13D 28L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.02 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jong PSV U21's home form reads 8W 6D 15L across their last 29 home games, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, VVV Venlo have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 29 away games (7W 7D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.27 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
Jong PSV U21 (Home) vs VVV Venlo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong PSV U21
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo Form FAQs
What form are Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 10D 33L in their last 60 games (1.02 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 19W 13D 28L in their last 60 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or VVV Venlo away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.03 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Jan 2022, when Jong PSV U21 won VVV Venlo 1-4 Jong PSV U21.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong PSV U21
3
Draws
3
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong PSV U21 have won 4, VVV Venlo have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: VVV Venlo 1-1 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 76%, VVV Venlo 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Jong PSV U21 and 62% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs VVV Venlo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Jong PSV U21's games and 52% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 62% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and VVV Venlo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Jong PSV U21's recent matches and 86% of VVV Venlo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VVV Venlo edge out Jong PSV U21 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat Jong PSV U21 1-2 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.08 xG and VVV Venlo 2.46 xG, a combined 4.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.18 / defence 1.63 against VVV Venlo attack 1.16 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 33% | Draw 19% | VVV Venlo 47%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 80% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 73%, VVV Venlo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.02 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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