Jong PSV U21 0-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to Sportcomplex De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 22 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong PSV U21 (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 4W 1D 3L at Sportcomplex De Herdgang — 1.62 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Jong PSV U21 are significantly better at Sportcomplex De Herdgang than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 60% versus NAC Breda 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 60% | NAC Breda 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.77 xG and NAC Breda 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.078 / defence 1.180 | NAC Breda attack 0.702 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.598. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Jong PSV U21's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Jong PSV U21 games / 15 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 48% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 29%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | NAC Breda 3.45. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong PSV U21 are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 62% | NAC Breda 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sportcomplex De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 22 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 48% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.77 / NAC Breda 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.078 / def 1.180 | NAC Breda attack 0.702 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.598 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.32
NAC Breda xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 22 November 2021 at Sportcomplex De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Jong PSV U21 0 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 48% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.08) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.70x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
48%
2.09
23%
4.30
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.09
1.32
NAC Breda xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
5%
20.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.32 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 5W 3D 7L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda's form line: 5W 4D 6L from 15 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.27 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Jong PSV U21 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.60 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or NAC Breda away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.62 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-5 on 4 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Jong PSV U21
1
Draws
5
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 0, NAC Breda have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when NAC Breda 2-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 62%, NAC Breda 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Jong PSV U21) and 50% (NAC Breda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jong PSV U21's games and 50% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 50% of NAC Breda's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jong PSV U21's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda finished level at 0-0 at Sportcomplex De Herdgang, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.77 xG and NAC Breda 1.32 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 1.8 short of their projected output. NAC Breda landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.08 / defence 1.18 against NAC Breda attack 0.70 / defence 1.31, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 48% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 29%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 60%, NAC Breda 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
NAC Breda's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.20 PPG, NAC Breda 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.