Jong PSV U21 0-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees MVV travel to PSV Campus De Herdgang to take on Jong PSV U21. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 April 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jong PSV U21's home record at PSV Campus De Herdgang: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
MVV — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, MVV have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong PSV U21 1.10 PPG, MVV 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Jong PSV U21, 0 for MVV and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
MVV trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 66% and MVV 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 63% | MVV 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 2.87 xG and MVV 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.224 / defence 1.163 | MVV attack 1.017 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.773 / away 1.322. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Jong PSV U21's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Jong PSV U21 games / 71 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 65% | Draw 16% | MVV 19%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 1.54 | Draw 6.25 | MVV 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Jong PSV U21 (65%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.87 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.44 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 90% | MVV 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 24 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 65% | Draw 16% | MVV 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 75% | xG Jong PSV U21 2.87 / MVV 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.224 / def 1.163 | MVV attack 1.017 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.773 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.87
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.56
MVV xG
75%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs MVV kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 24 April 2023 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs MVV?
Jong PSV U21 0 - 1 MVV.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs MVV part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs MVV is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 65% chance of winning, MVV a 19% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and MVV?
Record (3 meetings): Jong PSV U21 1W | Draws 2 | MVV 0W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and MVV in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. MVV (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong PSV U21's attack at 1.22x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.3%), 1-1 (6.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
65%
1.55
16%
6.07
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
2 – 2
6.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.87
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
4.44
1.56
MVV xG
1.55
65%
Home win
6.07
16%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.94
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
6%
17.64
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
1%
93.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.87 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.56 for MVV, a combined total of 4.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 22W 19D 30L from 71 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 28W 9D 34L across 71 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.20 PPG, MVV on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 14W 8D 13L from 35 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 11W 3D 21L across 35 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.45 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; MVV in 62%.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
MVV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and MVV in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 22W 19D 30L in their last 71 games (1.20 PPG), while MVV have gone 28W 9D 34L in their last 71 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or MVV away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.43 PPG; MVV away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong PSV U21 and MVV runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting MVV specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong PSV U21
4
Draws
4
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, MVV have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when MVV 2-1 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and MVV?
MVV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 63%, MVV 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Jong PSV U21 and 71% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Jong PSV U21's games and 60% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 71% of MVV's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and MVV tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, MVV in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as MVV defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat Jong PSV U21 0-1 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.87 xG and MVV 1.56 xG, a combined 4.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong PSV U21 fell 2.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.22 / defence 1.16 against MVV attack 1.02 / defence 1.32, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 65% | Draw 16% | MVV 19%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a MVV win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 94% and missed. Over 3.5 was 65% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 63%, MVV 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
MVV's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.20 PPG, MVV 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.