Jong PSV U21 3-3 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 16 as Jong PSV U21 welcome Jong Utrecht to De Herdgang. Kick-off is set for Friday 21 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21 at De Herdgang this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jong PSV U21 are significantly better at De Herdgang than their overall form suggests.
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong PSV U21 1.20 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Jong PSV U21: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 2 for Jong Utrecht, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 3–1 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
The historical record gives Jong PSV U21 a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Jong Utrecht trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 68% and Jong Utrecht 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 74% | Jong Utrecht 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.64 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.897 / defence 0.975 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.656 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.468. Data: 53 Jong PSV U21 games / 53 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 54% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 22%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Jong Utrecht 4.55. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Jong PSV U21 50% | Jong Utrecht 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 54% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.64 / Jong Utrecht 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.897 / def 0.975 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.656 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Jong Utrecht xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 November 2025 at De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Jong PSV U21 3 - 3 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 54% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht?
Record (8 meetings): Jong PSV U21 5W | Draws 1 | Jong Utrecht 2W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong PSV U21's attack at 0.90x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
54%
1.86
25%
4.06
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.58
0.94
Jong Utrecht xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
4%
23.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 0.94 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 16W 9D 28L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 8W 15D 30L from 53 games, 0.74 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.08 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 0.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (8W 4D 14L).
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 6D 18L from 26 away games — 0.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.92 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 16W 9D 28L in their last 53 games (1.08 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 8W 15D 30L in their last 53 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.08 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
3
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Jong Utrecht 5-3 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong PSV U21 at 77%, Jong Utrecht at 54%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Jong PSV U21 and 58% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Jong PSV U21's games and 54% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 58% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 16, as Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht drew 3-3 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.64 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.94 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Utrecht outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.66 / defence 1.06, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 54% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 22%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 74%, Jong Utrecht 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.08 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.