Jong PSV U21 2-2 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS meet at Sportcomplex De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong PSV U21 have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 3L across 7 games at Sportcomplex De Herdgang this term (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC OSS's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS away from home this season: 1W 0D 5L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Jong PSV U21's 1.30 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of FC OSS's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Jong PSV U21 half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 62% versus FC OSS 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 62% | FC OSS 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.72 xG and FC OSS 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.033 / defence 1.149 | FC OSS attack 0.566 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.447. FC OSS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Jong PSV U21's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Jong PSV U21 games / 13 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 56% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 21%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | FC OSS 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Jong PSV U21 (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Jong PSV U21 57% | FC OSS 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sportcomplex De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 56% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.72 / FC OSS 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.033 / def 1.149 | FC OSS attack 0.566 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
0.94
FC OSS xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Sportcomplex De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS?
Jong PSV U21 2 - 2 FC OSS.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 56% chance of winning, FC OSS a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. FC OSS (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jong PSV U21's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against FC OSS's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.57x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.20
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.66
0.94
FC OSS xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
4%
27.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 0.94 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong PSV U21 come into this having played 13 games, going 5W 2D 6L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 0.77 PPG from 13 outings (3W 1D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Jong PSV U21's home form reads 4W 0D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Jong PSV U21 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.15 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 3W 1D 9L in their last 13 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or FC OSS away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 2.00 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC OSS won 0-3 on 5 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
3
Draws
4
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, FC OSS have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 2-0 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 67%, FC OSS 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Jong PSV U21) and 50% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Jong PSV U21's recent matches and 33% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 50% of FC OSS's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportcomplex De Herdgang, Regular Season - 14, as Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.72 xG and FC OSS 0.94 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC OSS outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.03 / defence 1.15 against FC OSS attack 0.57 / defence 1.28, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 56% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 21%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 62%, FC OSS 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong PSV U21 arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.