Jong AZ 0-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Willem II travel to AFAS Trainingscomplex to take on Jong AZ. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 September 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ at AFAS Trainingscomplex this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong AZ 1.50 PPG, Willem II 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Jong AZ, 1 for Willem II and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Willem II in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 60% and Willem II 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 56% | Willem II 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.35 xG and Willem II 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.114 / defence 0.902 | Willem II attack 0.791 / defence 0.725. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.295. Willem II's defence strength of 0.725 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Jong AZ games / 44 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 47% | Draw 28% | Willem II 26%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Willem II 3.85. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 50% | Willem II 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 29 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 47% | Draw 28% | Willem II 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Jong AZ 1.35 / Willem II 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.114 / def 0.902 | Willem II attack 0.791 / def 0.725 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Willem II xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Willem II kick off?
Jong AZ vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 September 2023 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Willem II?
Jong AZ 0 - 2 Willem II.
Where is Jong AZ vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Willem II part of?
Jong AZ vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 47% chance of winning, Willem II a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Jong AZ and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Willem II?
Record (2 meetings): Jong AZ 0W | Draws 1 | Willem II 1W.
What form are Jong AZ and Willem II in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Willem II (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong AZ's attack rating (1.11) and Willem II's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.61
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.27
0.92
Willem II xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Jong AZ and 0.92 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 17W 11D 17L from 45 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 11L across 45 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.38 PPG, Willem II on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 11W 8D 4L from 23 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Jong AZ are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Willem II's away record stands at 6W 11D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.71 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Willem II in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Willem II in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 17W 11D 17L in their last 45 games (1.38 PPG), while Willem II have gone 21W 13D 11L in their last 45 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Willem II away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.78 PPG; Willem II away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Jong AZ or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong AZ have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Willem II in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and Willem II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2025, when Jong AZ won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Jong AZ
1
Draws
4
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 1, Willem II have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Willem II 3-0 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong AZ at 65%, Willem II at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Jong AZ) and 56% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Willem II in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Jong AZ's games and 65% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Jong AZ's recent games and 56% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Willem II tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Willem II in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Jong AZ 0-2 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.35 xG and Willem II 0.92 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Willem II outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.11 / defence 0.90 against Willem II attack 0.79 / defence 0.72, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 47% | Draw 28% | Willem II 26%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 56%, Willem II 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Willem II's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.38 PPG, Willem II 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.