Jong AZ vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host De Graafschap at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 19 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at AFAS Trainingscomplex this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong AZ at 1.20 PPG versus De Graafschap's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong AZ register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
De Graafschap have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against Jong AZ's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2026, ended 5–2 with Jong AZ winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. De Graafschap have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 60% and De Graafschap 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 70% | De Graafschap 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.26 xG and De Graafschap 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.774 / defence 0.963 | De Graafschap attack 0.934 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Jong AZ's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Jong AZ games / 42 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 31% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 43%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | De Graafschap 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 60% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 19 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 31% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Jong AZ 1.26 / De Graafschap 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.774 / def 0.963 | De Graafschap attack 0.934 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.53
De Graafschap xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong AZ vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 19 April 2027 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Where is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong AZ vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 31% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jong AZ and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
Record (10 meetings): Jong AZ 2W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 6W.
What form are Jong AZ and De Graafschap in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong AZ's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
31%
3.18
25%
3.99
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.79
1.53
De Graafschap xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
7%
14.64
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.53 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 14W 4D 25L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap's form line: 17W 11D 15L from 43 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.07 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 0.77 PPG from 22 outings (5W 2D 15L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 8W 7D 7L from 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.84 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 74%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 14W 4D 25L in their last 43 games (1.07 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.77 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2026, when De Graafschap won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
2
Draws
6
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, De Graafschap have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when De Graafschap 2-5 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 50%, De Graafschap 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Jong AZ and 64% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Jong AZ's games and 73% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Jong AZ's matches and 64% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong AZ and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.