Jong Ajax 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Roda (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jong Ajax face Roda.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Ajax host Roda at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jong Ajax at Sportpark De Toekomst this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Jong Ajax are significantly better at Sportpark De Toekomst than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Roda have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Roda's 2.40 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Jong Ajax's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Jong Ajax have won 1, Roda 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Roda in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 68% and Roda 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 66% | Roda 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.12 xG and Roda 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.879 / defence 0.895 | Roda attack 1.230 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.396. Roda's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Roda have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 73 Jong Ajax games / 73 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 27% | Draw 27% | Roda 46%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Roda 2.17. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Jong Ajax 40% | Roda 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 27% | Draw 27% | Roda 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Jong Ajax 1.12 / Roda 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.879 / def 0.895 | Roda attack 1.230 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Roda (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Roda xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Roda kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Jong Ajax 1 - 1 Roda.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Roda part of?
Jong Ajax vs Roda is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 27% chance of winning, Roda a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jong Ajax and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Roda?
Record (5 meetings): Jong Ajax 1W | Draws 1 | Roda 3W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Roda in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Roda (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong Ajax's attack at 0.88x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
27%
3.72
27%
3.68
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.66
1.54
Roda xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
6%
17.28
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.54 for Roda, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 22W 19D 32L from 73 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 32W 18D 23L across 73 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Ajax heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 15W 9D 12L from 36 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 12W 10D 14L across 36 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.58 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 22W 19D 32L in their last 73 games (1.16 PPG), while Roda have gone 32W 18D 23L in their last 73 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Roda away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.50 PPG; Roda away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Ajax and Roda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Ajax
4
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 2, Roda have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Jong Ajax 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 61%, Roda 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Jong Ajax) and 47% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Jong Ajax's games and 53% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Jong Ajax's matches and 47% of Roda's.
Do Jong Ajax and Roda tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Roda in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Ajax and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 36, as Jong Ajax and Roda drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.12 xG and Roda 1.54 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Roda attack 1.23 / defence 0.79, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 27% | Draw 27% | Roda 46%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 66%, Roda 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.