Jong Ajax 3-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong Ajax and NAC Breda meet at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Monday 12 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong Ajax (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong Ajax have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Sportpark De Toekomst, Jong Ajax have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jong Ajax are significantly better at Sportpark De Toekomst than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jong Ajax register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, NAC Breda in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Jong Ajax, 0 for NAC Breda and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 75% and NAC Breda 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 68% | NAC Breda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 2.60 xG and NAC Breda 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.548 / defence 0.829 | NAC Breda attack 1.106 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.327. Jong Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.548 — their λ of 2.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Jong Ajax games / 44 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 67% | Draw 17% | NAC Breda 16%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 1.49 | Draw 5.88 | NAC Breda 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Jong Ajax (67%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.60 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Ajax are the pick at 67% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 80% | NAC Breda 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 12 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 67% | Draw 17% | NAC Breda 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 65% | xG Jong Ajax 2.60 / NAC Breda 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.548 / def 0.829 | NAC Breda attack 1.106 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.22
NAC Breda xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda kick off?
Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 12 September 2022 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda?
Jong Ajax 3 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda part of?
Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 67% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 16% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Jong Ajax and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and NAC Breda?
Record (2 meetings): Jong Ajax 1W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are Jong Ajax and NAC Breda in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (1.55x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.60. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (1.11x) against Jong Ajax's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 3-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
67%
1.49
17%
5.87
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.82
1.22
NAC Breda xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.87
17%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
7%
13.48
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
1%
85.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.22 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Jong Ajax have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 20W 11D 13L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jong Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NAC Breda's form line: 19W 11D 14L from 44 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Jong Ajax against 1.55 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jong Ajax have posted 2.14 PPG from 22 outings (14W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Jong Ajax are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 7W 4D 11L from 22 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Ajax are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.50 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: NAC Breda in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 20W 11D 13L in their last 44 games (1.61 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 19W 11D 14L in their last 44 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or NAC Breda away?
Jong Ajax's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 2.14 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Jong Ajax or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 2-6 on 13 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 3, NAC Breda have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Jong Ajax 0-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and NAC Breda?
Jong Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Jong Ajax, 54% for NAC Breda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Jong Ajax and 59% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Jong Ajax's games and 54% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Jong Ajax's matches and 59% of NAC Breda's.
Do Jong Ajax and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Ajax cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat NAC Breda 3-1 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 2.60 xG and NAC Breda 1.22 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.55 / defence 0.83 against NAC Breda attack 1.11 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 67% | Draw 17% | NAC Breda 16%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 68%, NAC Breda 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.61 PPG, NAC Breda 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.