Jong Ajax 2-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong Ajax at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Jong AZ travel to Sportpark De Toekomst to take on Jong Ajax. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 February 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax at Sportpark De Toekomst this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Jong Ajax carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Jong Ajax, 0 for Jong AZ and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Ajax 78% versus Jong AZ 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 70% | Jong AZ 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.91 xG and Jong AZ 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.350 / defence 1.112 | Jong AZ attack 0.566 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.406. Jong Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jong AZ bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Jong Ajax's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Jong Ajax games / 23 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 61% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 17%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Jong AZ 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Jong Ajax (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Ajax at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 80% | Jong AZ 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Friday 4 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 61% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG Jong Ajax 1.91 / Jong AZ 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.350 / def 1.112 | Jong AZ attack 0.566 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Jong AZ xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 February 2022 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Jong Ajax 2 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ part of?
Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 61% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Jong Ajax and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Jong AZ?
Record (1 meetings): Jong Ajax 0W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 0W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Jong AZ in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong Ajax's attack rating (1.35) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.61
17%
5.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.80
0.89
Jong AZ xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
5.94
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
2%
40.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 0.89 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Ajax come into this having played 23 games, going 13W 4D 6L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.09 PPG from 23 outings (7W 4D 12L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jong Ajax's home form reads 7W 2D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 0.64 points per game from 11 outings (2W 1D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong Ajax are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 0.91 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 13W 4D 6L in their last 23 games (1.87 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 7W 4D 12L in their last 23 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong Ajax's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 2.09 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Ajax and Jong AZ runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong Ajax have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2023, when Jong AZ won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
5
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 3, Jong AZ have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2026, when Jong AZ 1-2 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 82%, Jong AZ 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 82% (Jong Ajax) and 36% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Jong Ajax's games and 36% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Jong Ajax's matches and 36% of Jong AZ's.
Do Jong Ajax and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong Ajax edge out Jong AZ 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Jong AZ 2-1 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.91 xG and Jong AZ 0.89 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.35 / defence 1.11 against Jong AZ attack 0.57 / defence 1.25, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 61% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 17%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 70%, Jong AZ 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.