Jong Ajax 1-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong Ajax and De Graafschap meet at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jong Ajax's home record at Sportpark De Toekomst: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Jong Ajax are significantly better at Sportpark De Toekomst than their overall form suggests.
De Graafschap have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
De Graafschap's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Jong Ajax against 0.90 for De Graafschap. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jong Ajax lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with Jong Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Jong Ajax goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 78% and De Graafschap 49% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 73% | De Graafschap 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.99 xG and De Graafschap 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.649 / defence 1.181 | De Graafschap attack 0.955 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.452. Jong Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.649 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Jong Ajax games / 37 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 46% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 32%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | De Graafschap 3.12. Jong Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Ajax at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.63 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 80% | De Graafschap 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 46% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Jong Ajax 1.99 / De Graafschap 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.649 / def 1.181 | De Graafschap attack 0.955 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.64
De Graafschap xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Jong Ajax 1 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 46% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Jong Ajax and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and De Graafschap?
Record (1 meetings): Jong Ajax 1W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 0W.
What form are Jong Ajax and De Graafschap in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (1.65x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.95x) against Jong Ajax's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
46%
2.16
22%
4.65
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.63
1.64
De Graafschap xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
9%
11.10
4%
22.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.64 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 18W 8D 11L from 37 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 12L across 37 games — 1.49 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Jong Ajax against 1.49 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 12W 3D 3L from 18 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Jong Ajax are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 11W 2D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.94 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.49 PPG overall record — De Graafschap travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Ajax are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.38 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Defensively: De Graafschap in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 18W 8D 11L in their last 37 games (1.68 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 15W 10D 12L in their last 37 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or De Graafschap away?
Jong Ajax's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 2.17 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Jong Ajax or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 5-1 on 22 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
4
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 4, De Graafschap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when De Graafschap 4-0 Jong Ajax.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 83%, De Graafschap 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Jong Ajax and 67% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Jong Ajax's games and 44% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Jong Ajax's matches and 67% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong Ajax and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Ajax and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax and De Graafschap finished level at 1-1 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.99 xG and De Graafschap 1.64 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jong Ajax fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.65 / defence 1.18 against De Graafschap attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 46% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 32%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 73%, De Graafschap 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.68 PPG, De Graafschap 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.78 scoring average — below par going forward. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.