Heracles 0-3 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 20 as Heracles welcome PEC Zwolle to Erve Asito. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 January 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Heracles have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Erve Asito, Heracles have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Heracles at 2.20 PPG versus PEC Zwolle's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Heracles, 2 for PEC Zwolle and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2022, ended 2–3 with PEC Zwolle winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Heracles in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 52% versus PEC Zwolle 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 62% | PEC Zwolle 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 2.49 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.802 / defence 0.954 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.305 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.330. Heracles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.802 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PEC Zwolle have an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Heracles games / 18 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 56% | Draw 19% | PEC Zwolle 25%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.79 | Draw 5.26 | PEC Zwolle 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.15. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.15 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.49 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.15 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Heracles 60% | PEC Zwolle 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 56% | Draw 19% | PEC Zwolle 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 74% | xG Heracles 2.49 / PEC Zwolle 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.802 / def 0.954 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.305 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Heracles (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.66
PEC Zwolle xG
74%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Heracles vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Heracles 0 - 3 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Heracles vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Heracles vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 56% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 25% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Heracles and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and PEC Zwolle?
Record (3 meetings): Heracles 1W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 2W.
What form are Heracles and PEC Zwolle in?
Heracles (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heracles's attacking strength (1.80x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.49. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
56%
1.78
19%
5.31
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Heracles xG
Total xG
4.15
1.66
PEC Zwolle xG
1.78
56%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.88
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
8%
12.11
Win to Nil
11%
9.33
2%
48.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Heracles and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Heracles and 1.66 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 4.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles's recent record stands at 23W 8D 21L from 52 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 24L across 52 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 1.48 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 15W 6D 4L from 25 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 11W 1D 13L across 25 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.35 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 23W 8D 21L in their last 52 games (1.48 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 20W 8D 24L in their last 52 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Heracles's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.04 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Heracles won 8-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Heracles
0
Draws
6
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and PEC Zwolle?
From 10 meetings on record, Heracles have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 60%, PEC Zwolle 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Heracles) and 48% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; PEC Zwolle in 32%; PEC Zwolle in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Heracles's recent matches and 28% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Heracles's recent games and 48% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heracles and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PEC Zwolle run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Heracles 0-3 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 2.49 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.66 xG, a combined 4.15. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Heracles fell 2.5 short of their projected output. PEC Zwolle outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.80 / defence 0.95 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.30 / defence 0.88, drawn from 19/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 56% | Draw 19% | PEC Zwolle 25%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a PEC Zwolle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 62%, PEC Zwolle 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.48 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.