Heracles 8-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Heracles at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 18 as Heracles welcome Dordrecht to Erve Asito. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 December 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles at Erve Asito this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Dordrecht have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Heracles are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Heracles register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dordrecht in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Heracles trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Dordrecht trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 49% versus Dordrecht 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 58% | Dordrecht 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 2.16 xG and Dordrecht 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.479 / defence 0.928 | Dordrecht attack 0.868 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.364. Heracles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.479 — their λ of 2.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 17 Heracles games / 55 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 61% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 18%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Dordrecht 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 60% | Dordrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Friday 16 Dec 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 61% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Heracles 2.16 / Dordrecht 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.479 / def 0.928 | Dordrecht attack 0.868 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Heracles (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Dordrecht xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Dordrecht kick off?
Heracles vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 December 2022 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Dordrecht?
Heracles 8 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Heracles vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Dordrecht part of?
Heracles vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 61% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Heracles and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Dordrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heracles and Dordrecht in?
Heracles (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Heracles's attack at 1.48x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 2.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
61%
1.63
20%
4.98
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.26
1.10
Dordrecht xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
12%
8.64
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
2%
46.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Heracles and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Heracles and 1.10 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 53 games, going 22W 8D 23L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.02 PPG from 53 outings (14W 12D 27L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 1.40 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Heracles's home form reads 14W 6D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.81 points per game from 26 outings (5W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.36 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 22W 8D 23L in their last 53 games (1.40 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 14W 12D 27L in their last 53 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Dordrecht away?
Heracles's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.85 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Heracles
0
Draws
0
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Dordrecht?
From 2 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Dordrecht have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2023, when Dordrecht 1-3 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Dordrecht?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 54%, Dordrecht 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Heracles and 73% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Heracles's games and 73% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Heracles's matches and 73% of Dordrecht's.
Do Heracles and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heracles run riot with a 8-1 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Dordrecht 8-1 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 2.16 xG and Dordrecht 1.10 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 8-1 for 9 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 5.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.48 / defence 0.93 against Dordrecht attack 0.87 / defence 0.90, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 61% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 18%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 58%, Dordrecht 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.40 PPG, Dordrecht 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 8 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.