Heracles vs Dordrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 37 as Heracles welcome Dordrecht to Asito Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Heracles have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heracles at Asito Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Dordrecht have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Heracles 1.20 PPG, Dordrecht 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Heracles, 0 for Dordrecht and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2023, ended 3–1 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Heracles trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Dordrecht trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heracles 55% and Dordrecht 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 74% | Dordrecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 2.37 xG and Dordrecht 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.008 / defence 1.156 | Dordrecht attack 0.905 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Heracles games / 42 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 51% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 29%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.96 | Draw 5.00 | Dordrecht 3.45. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.15. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.15 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.15 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 50% | Dordrecht 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Asito Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 51% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 75% | xG Heracles 2.37 / Dordrecht 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.008 / def 1.156 | Dordrecht attack 0.905 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Heracles (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Dordrecht xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Dordrecht kick off?
Heracles vs Dordrecht is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 7 May 2027 at Asito Stadium.
Where is Heracles vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadium.
What competition is Heracles vs Dordrecht part of?
Heracles vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 51% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 29% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Heracles and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Dordrecht?
Record (2 meetings): Heracles 2W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are Heracles and Dordrecht in?
Heracles (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Heracles's attack at 1.01x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.5%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
51%
1.94
20%
5.12
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
1 – 1
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Heracles xG
Total xG
4.15
1.78
Dordrecht xG
1.94
51%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.06
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
9%
10.73
Win to Nil
9%
11.49
3%
36.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Heracles and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Heracles and 1.78 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 4.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 38 games, going 9W 4D 25L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.11 PPG from 38 outings (10W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 0.82 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Heracles's home form reads 5W 3D 10L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.00 points per game from 18 outings (4W 6D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 2.42 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.24 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 68%.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 9W 4D 25L in their last 38 games (0.82 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 10W 12D 16L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Dordrecht away?
Heracles's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.00 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Heracles
0
Draws
0
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Dordrecht?
From 2 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Dordrecht have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2023, when Dordrecht 1-3 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Dordrecht?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Heracles at 56%, Dordrecht at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Heracles and 67% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Heracles's games and 78% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Heracles's matches and 67% of Dordrecht's.
Do Heracles and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.