Helmond Sport 1-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 21 as Helmond Sport welcome Dordrecht to SolarUnie Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 January 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helmond Sport stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport at SolarUnie Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Dordrecht — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 3.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Helmond Sport) versus 0.50 (Dordrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Helmond Sport have won 1, Dordrecht 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Helmond Sport winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Helmond Sport 45% and Dordrecht 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 45% | Dordrecht 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.58 xG and Dordrecht 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.749 / defence 1.209 | Dordrecht attack 0.774 / defence 1.796. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.554. Helmond Sport's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.796 — this is suppressing Helmond Sport's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Helmond Sport games / 20 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 41% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 35%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Dordrecht 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helmond Sport at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 50% | Dordrecht 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: SolarUnie Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Jan 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 41% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Helmond Sport 1.58 / Dordrecht 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.749 / def 1.209 | Dordrecht attack 0.774 / def 1.796 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.554 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Dordrecht xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht kicked off at 17:45 on Friday 7 January 2022 at SolarUnie Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Helmond Sport 1 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at SolarUnie Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht part of?
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 41% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Helmond Sport and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Dordrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Helmond Sport 1W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are Helmond Sport and Dordrecht in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 3.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (0.75) and Dordrecht's defence rating (1.80), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
41%
2.46
24%
4.14
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.04
1.46
Dordrecht xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
7%
13.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.46 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Helmond Sport come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 5D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 0.55 PPG from 20 outings (2W 5D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Helmond Sport's home form reads 3W 2D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.40 points per game from 10 outings (1W 1D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helmond Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Helmond Sport are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.15 scored and 2.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 75%.
Last 20 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 5W 5D 10L in their last 20 games (1.00 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 2W 5D 13L in their last 20 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Dordrecht away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.10 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helmond Sport and Dordrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Dordrecht have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Dordrecht won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
2
Draws
6
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 2, Dordrecht have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Dordrecht 3-0 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Helmond Sport at 50%, Dordrecht at 90%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Helmond Sport and 100% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Helmond Sport's games and 90% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Helmond Sport's matches and 100% of Dordrecht's.
Do Helmond Sport and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat Helmond Sport 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Helmond Sport 1-2 at SolarUnie Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.58 xG and Dordrecht 1.46 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.75 / defence 1.21 against Dordrecht attack 0.77 / defence 1.80, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 41% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 35%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Dordrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 45%, Dordrecht 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Dordrecht's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Helmond Sport arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.55. Form was overturned, with Dordrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.