Groningen 3-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Euroborg plays host to Groningen versus Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Groningen have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Euroborg, Groningen have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cambuur's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cambuur's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Groningen's 2.60 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Cambuur's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Groningen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cambuur in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Groningen 2W, Cambuur 3W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Cambuur winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Groningen half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 48% versus Cambuur 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 59% | Cambuur 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.98 xG and Cambuur 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.108 / defence 0.819 | Cambuur attack 0.985 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.413. Data: 34 Groningen games / 34 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 56% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 21%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Cambuur 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Groningen (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 60% | Cambuur 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 56% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Groningen 1.98 / Cambuur 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.108 / def 0.819 | Cambuur attack 0.985 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Groningen (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Cambuur xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Cambuur kick off?
Groningen vs Cambuur kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Cambuur?
Groningen 3 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is Groningen vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Cambuur part of?
Groningen vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 56% chance of winning, Cambuur a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Groningen and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Cambuur?
Record (5 meetings): Groningen 2W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 3W.
What form are Groningen and Cambuur in?
Groningen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Cambuur (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Groningen's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.98x) against Groningen's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.33
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.12
1.14
Cambuur xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
3%
35.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Groningen and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Groningen and 1.14 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 68 outings, Groningen have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 24W 13D 31L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Cambuur's form line: 18W 10D 40L from 68 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Groningen against 0.94 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Groningen have posted 1.38 PPG from 34 outings (13W 8D 13L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 9W 6D 19L from 34 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Groningen are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.37 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Current Season
Cambuur
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 24W 13D 31L in their last 68 games (1.25 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 18W 10D 40L in their last 68 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Cambuur away?
Groningen's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.38 PPG; Cambuur away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Groningen have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Groningen
0
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Groningen have won 3, Cambuur have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Groningen 3-0 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 50%, Cambuur 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Groningen and 65% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 32% of games; Cambuur in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Groningen's games and 62% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Groningen's matches and 65% of Cambuur's.
Do Groningen and Cambuur tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Groningen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Cambuur 3-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.98 xG and Cambuur 1.14 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cambuur landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.11 / defence 0.82 against Cambuur attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 56% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 21%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 59%, Cambuur 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.25 PPG, Cambuur 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.