Groningen 0-1 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 38%, yet in-form ADO Den Haag provide a compelling counter-argument — this Groningen vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Groningen and ADO Den Haag meet at Euroborg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Groningen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Groningen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Groningen at Euroborg this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
ADO Den Haag have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
ADO Den Haag's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. ADO Den Haag are 0.70 PPG clear of Groningen in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
ADO Den Haag goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 50% versus ADO Den Haag 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 55% | ADO Den Haag 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.25 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.934 / defence 0.936 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.975 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.298. Data: 4 Groningen games / 42 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 38% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 35%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | ADO Den Haag 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Groningen at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form ADO Den Haag (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Groningen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Groningen 50% | ADO Den Haag 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Friday 15 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 38% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Groningen 1.25 / ADO Den Haag 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.934 / def 0.936 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.975 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Groningen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.19
ADO Den Haag xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Groningen vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 September 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs ADO Den Haag?
Groningen 0 - 1 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Groningen vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Groningen vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 38% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Groningen and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and ADO Den Haag?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Groningen and ADO Den Haag in?
Groningen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.93) and ADO Den Haag's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (0.97x) against Groningen's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
38%
2.64
27%
3.65
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.44
1.19
ADO Den Haag xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
10%
10.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Groningen and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Groningen and 1.19 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Groningen's recent record stands at 6W 7D 25L from 38 games, a 0.66 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
ADO Den Haag, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 11L across 38 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours ADO Den Haag by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Groningen heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 4W 4D 11L from 19 games — 0.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
ADO Den Haag's away record stands at 8W 7D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Groningen are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.37 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Early Season
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 6W 7D 25L in their last 38 games (0.66 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 14W 13D 11L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 0.84 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Groningen
0
Draws
1
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and ADO Den Haag?
From 2 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, ADO Den Haag have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2024, when ADO Den Haag 0-2 Groningen.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
ADO Den Haag see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 53%, ADO Den Haag 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Groningen) and 42% (ADO Den Haag).
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag in 37%; Groningen have failed to score in 37% of games; ADO Den Haag in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Groningen's games and 58% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Groningen's recent games and 42% of ADO Den Haag's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ADO Den Haag defy the odds to beat Groningen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Groningen 0-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.25 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.19 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Groningen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.97 / defence 0.81, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 38% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 35%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual ADO Den Haag win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 55%, ADO Den Haag 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.