FC Volendam 2-1 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VVV Venlo make the trip to Kras Stadion to face FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 17 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 2W 3D 1L across 6 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 2.33 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VVV Venlo's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games (1.67 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.67 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, VVV Venlo in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
VVV Venlo — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 67% and VVV Venlo 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 83% | VVV Venlo 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.55 xG and VVV Venlo 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.139 / defence 1.151 | VVV Venlo attack 0.763 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.436. Data: 6 FC Volendam games / 6 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 44% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | VVV Venlo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Volendam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 67% | VVV Venlo 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 44% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Volendam 1.55 / VVV Venlo 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.139 / def 1.151 | VVV Venlo attack 0.763 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.26
VVV Venlo xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo kick off?
FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo?
FC Volendam 2 - 1 VVV Venlo.
Where is FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo part of?
FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 44% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Volendam and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and VVV Venlo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and VVV Venlo in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.17 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (0.76x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
44%
2.27
25%
4.01
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.81
1.26
VVV Venlo xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
7%
15.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.26 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 2W 3D 1L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VVV Venlo's form line: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.67 for VVV Venlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.33 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; VVV Venlo in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
VVV Venlo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Have FC Volendam or VVV Venlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, VVV Venlo in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and VVV Venlo?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, VVV Venlo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when VVV Venlo 1-3 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and VVV Venlo?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VVV Venlo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for FC Volendam, 67% for VVV Venlo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for FC Volendam and 67% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play VVV Venlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Volendam's games and 67% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of FC Volendam's matches and 67% of VVV Venlo's.
Do FC Volendam and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out VVV Venlo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat VVV Venlo 2-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.55 xG and VVV Venlo 1.26 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against VVV Venlo attack 0.76 / defence 0.99, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 44% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 31%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 83%, VVV Venlo 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.50 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.