FC Volendam 3-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 9 as FC Volendam welcome Almere City FC to Kras Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 4W 3D 1L from 8 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.88 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.38 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 1L across 4 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have recorded 2W 3D 3L from 8 outings — 1.12 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.88 per game and conceding 1.88. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.76 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.88 vs 1.12. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 75% and Almere City FC 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 88% | Almere City FC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.15 xG and Almere City FC 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.191 / defence 1.191 | Almere City FC attack 1.012 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.343. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 FC Volendam games / 8 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 50% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 29%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.00 | Draw 4.76 | Almere City FC 3.45. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 75% | Almere City FC 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 50% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 71% | xG FC Volendam 2.15 / Almere City FC 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.191 / def 1.191 | Almere City FC attack 1.012 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Almere City FC xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Almere City FC kick off?
FC Volendam vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
FC Volendam 3 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is FC Volendam vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Almere City FC part of?
FC Volendam vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 50% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 29% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both FC Volendam and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Almere City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and Almere City FC in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-3D-1L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 2.38 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 1.88 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (1.19) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
50%
1.99
21%
4.83
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.77
1.62
Almere City FC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.43
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
12%
8.61
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
3%
29.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.62 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 4W 3D 1L from 8 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 3L across 8 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Volendam by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.88 scored and 1.88 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Almere City FC in 88%.
Last 8 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Almere City FC away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.75 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Almere City FC?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Almere City FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when Almere City FC 1-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Almere City FC?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 75%, Almere City FC at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC Volendam and 75% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC Volendam's games and 100% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC Volendam's matches and 75% of Almere City FC's.
Do FC Volendam and Almere City FC tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Almere City FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Almere City FC 3-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.15 xG and Almere City FC 1.62 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.19 / defence 1.19 against Almere City FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.35, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 50% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 29%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 81% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 88%, Almere City FC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 81%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Almere City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.