FC OSS 1-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC OSS at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC OSS welcome Helmond Sport to Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 2 February 2025 at 15:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC OSS have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
FC OSS at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Helmond Sport stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Helmond Sport's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, FC OSS have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for FC OSS, 1 for Helmond Sport and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2024, ended FC OSS 0–1 Helmond Sport — a Helmond Sport win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC OSS trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Helmond Sport trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 42% versus Helmond Sport 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 47% | Helmond Sport 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.44 xG and Helmond Sport 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.715 / defence 1.074 | Helmond Sport attack 0.895 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.297. FC OSS's attack rating of 0.715 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.44. Helmond Sport's defence rating of 1.221 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC OSS's projected output up. Data: built from FC OSS's last 61 games and Helmond Sport's last 60.
Result probabilities: FC OSS 41% | Draw 27% | Helmond Sport 32%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.43 | Draw 3.74 | Helmond Sport 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC OSS's last 10 home games and Helmond Sport's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC OSS 50% (last 10 home games) | Helmond Sport 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 24 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 February 2025 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 41% | Draw 27% | Helmond Sport 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG FC OSS 1.44 / Helmond Sport 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.715 / def 1.074 | Helmond Sport attack 0.895 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Helmond Sport xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC OSS vs Helmond Sport FAQs
What time does FC OSS vs Helmond Sport kick off?
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
FC OSS 1 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport part of?
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 41% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC OSS and Helmond Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC OSS vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 0.71x the league average against Helmond Sport's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC OSS's last 61 games and Helmond Sport's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.74
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.69
1.25
Helmond Sport xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
8%
13.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC OSS vs Helmond Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.25 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, FC OSS have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 16W 11D 33L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Helmond Sport's form line: 24W 13D 23L from 60 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Helmond Sport are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 30 home games (12W 4D 14L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 9W 5D 16L from their last 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.40 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
FC OSS (Home) vs Helmond Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC OSS
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ FC OSS vs Helmond Sport Form FAQs
What form are FC OSS and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 16W 11D 33L in their last 60 games (0.98 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 24W 13D 23L in their last 60 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Helmond Sport away?
FC OSS's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.33 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Oct 2025, when Helmond Sport won FC OSS 0-3 Helmond Sport.
FC OSS's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC OSS
4
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ FC OSS vs Helmond Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Helmond Sport?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC OSS have won 4, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Helmond Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: FC OSS 3-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Helmond Sport?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 35% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 50%, Helmond Sport 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FC OSS) and 67% (Helmond Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 30% of games; Helmond Sport in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC OSS vs Helmond Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC OSS and Helmond Sport matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC OSS's recent matches and 57% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC OSS and Helmond Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of FC OSS's matches and 67% of Helmond Sport's.
Do FC OSS and Helmond Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of FC OSS's recent matches and 77% of Helmond Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC OSS and Helmond Sport share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 24, as FC OSS and Helmond Sport drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.44 xG and Helmond Sport 1.25 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.71 / defence 1.07 against Helmond Sport attack 0.90 / defence 1.22, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 41% | Draw 27% | Helmond Sport 32%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 47%, Helmond Sport 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Helmond Sport arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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